***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.08.2019.-01.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 15.5 18.5 21.3 4.5 99.9 98.9 12.8 14.0 15.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 15.9 17.6 20.6 4.2 98.7 97.7 12.6 13.7 14.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 17.9 19.9 20.9 3.8 98.4 97.6 15.3 16.0 16.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 12.8 16.0 17.5 3.1 97.3 96.2 10.2 11.2 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 14.2 16.3 18.6 3.4 98.2 97.1 12.0 12.7 13.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 13.0 14.6 14.9 2.6 97.1 95.8 11.4 11.8 12.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 15.8 18.0 20.5 4.0 99.1 97.9 13.1 13.8 15.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 2 98 100 8.4 10.3 15.1 2.4 94.2 93.0 6.4 7.0 8.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 15.6 17.5 18.3 3.1 98.9 97.0 12.8 13.6 14.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 1 99 100 15.0 16.7 16.4 2.9 97.7 96.0 12.6 13.6 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 2 98 100 14.8 15.8 17.3 2.3 92.3 89.9 12.5 13.4 13.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 2 98 100 13.0 14.2 16.1 2.3 92.7 91.2 11.2 11.8 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 13 87 100 13.9 15.0 15.2 1.5 86.5 81.6 12.1 13.1 13.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 0 100 100 16.0 17.0 17.5 2.7 94.8 93.3 13.6 14.3 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 16.3 17.8 18.8 2.4 97.4 93.3 14.4 15.3 16.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 5 95 100 15.1 17.5 16.3 1.9 91.9 88.6 13.5 14.5 14.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 16.0 17.8 20.1 4.1 98.8 97.9 13.2 14.3 15.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 1 99 100 13.4 14.8 15.2 2.4 94.5 93.0 11.7 12.4 12.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 16.0 16.9 20.6 4.0 98.3 97.2 12.9 13.7 15.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 3 97 100 9.6 10.2 13.1 2.0 89.6 88.4 7.4 8.6 9.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 15.4 17.0 19.4 3.2 98.9 97.2 12.6 13.2 14.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 14.8 16.2 20.1 3.8 99.1 97.2 12.8 13.1 14.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 14.9 16.1 20.2 3.4 95.8 94.8 12.5 13.5 14.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 0 100 100 15.2 16.6 17.6 2.7 95.3 94.1 13.1 13.9 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 15.1 17.5 20.4 4.3 99.6 99.0 12.7 13.6 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 19 81 100 13.9 14.3 14.1 1.3 82.3 78.4 12.4 13.0 13.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 15.7 19.8 20.7 4.5 99.8 98.8 12.1 13.5 15.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 0 100 100 13.9 15.7 17.4 2.5 95.7 93.4 12.0 12.9 13.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 1 99 100 12.8 14.3 14.4 2.2 91.8 91.0 10.4 11.1 12.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 16.3 18.6 21.0 4.2 98.8 97.5 13.0 13.8 14.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------