***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.08.2013.-22.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 0.0 39.4 105.2 60.1 53.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 33.5 52.5 42.9 106.9 58.9 53.6 36.5 51.6 55.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 61.9 61.9 38.1 98.6 54.0 50.1 26.2 57.1 69.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 70.8 66.5 39.5 101.5 56.0 52.8 40.0 64.5 75.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 58.5 51.4 39.3 95.8 52.7 49.8 30.1 49.0 65.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 29.3 46.2 48.4 100.3 55.4 51.3 31.9 42.1 53.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 51.1 53.6 44.9 111.8 64.2 55.4 30.6 45.8 54.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 61.2 79.6 44.6 95.7 49.8 48.9 62.3 80.5 105.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 38.1 55.1 39.9 93.5 51.0 48.2 38.5 52.8 68.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 39.3 57.4 45.7 93.4 49.3 47.8 33.5 58.0 70.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 29.2 48.9 35.6 92.5 51.0 47.7 35.9 48.1 65.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 34.0 49.2 35.3 96.7 51.2 48.9 35.9 48.4 61.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 35.1 51.2 40.5 97.3 53.4 49.5 38.3 50.8 67.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 44.4 73.2 52.5 105.1 59.0 52.7 44.0 63.5 78.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 39.1 42.7 37.7 111.3 64.6 56.6 22.7 35.7 43.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 30.2 53.1 37.5 95.0 53.3 48.4 36.1 51.8 59.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 51.2 54.7 45.4 111.3 64.0 56.8 37.4 45.2 55.1 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 44.5 68.7 55.4 98.4 53.8 49.7 42.8 65.6 78.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 36.5 57.0 41.2 103.4 57.6 52.3 35.1 53.2 67.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 72.5 72.8 65.2 101.2 56.3 51.3 56.2 65.5 84.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 56.7 57.4 37.5 97.5 55.3 50.4 36.3 47.6 76.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 32.9 60.5 45.8 107.6 62.8 56.7 33.7 44.5 61.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 50.6 55.0 40.6 100.2 56.8 51.0 31.0 40.6 64.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 42.3 78.1 48.2 99.3 55.7 50.3 38.5 64.6 93.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 61.1 62.8 45.4 105.7 60.1 55.4 38.2 56.2 67.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 27.4 39.6 35.7 102.6 58.4 50.7 32.1 35.8 45.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 58.4 61.4 46.4 108.6 63.5 55.6 39.2 51.2 63.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 23.9 43.2 37.3 100.7 56.7 51.9 24.2 36.8 49.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 65.0 101.1 60.4 100.7 55.4 50.7 71.6 95.6 119.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 32.4 44.2 41.1 105.0 58.3 52.3 30.3 41.0 49.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------