***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.09.2013.-22.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 9999.0 0.0 6.1 94.3 71.4 48.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 8.5 10.1 7.6 109.5 68.2 50.9 3.2 6.3 10.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 9.6 14.3 6.6 95.4 67.2 47.5 1.9 6.3 14.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 1.9 14.3 6.6 90.4 71.0 48.0 2.1 4.5 12.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 2.1 14.4 7.2 93.6 67.9 48.5 0.5 4.4 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 9.0 8.4 8.2 84.6 58.8 46.4 1.8 5.9 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 3.8 14.2 7.8 110.6 69.4 51.8 2.6 7.6 12.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 17.6 24.1 9.4 110.3 67.1 50.5 4.6 12.4 23.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 3.0 12.0 7.9 99.6 69.0 50.4 1.3 6.2 10.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 10.6 12.9 9.7 106.7 67.8 50.2 5.2 6.8 12.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 7.8 16.1 6.8 93.9 66.4 48.6 0.7 3.9 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 9.3 14.8 7.0 107.0 67.6 49.9 0.4 6.8 14.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 3.1 9.6 7.4 95.4 63.1 47.5 1.4 6.5 11.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 4.2 19.9 10.5 110.5 68.4 48.7 1.5 9.0 19.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 0.9 17.5 6.3 99.2 73.0 50.8 0.2 2.2 12.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 6.8 5.0 6.5 85.4 61.0 46.7 0.6 3.3 5.4 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 3.3 13.1 8.1 106.9 68.9 51.9 4.0 6.4 10.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 13.2 22.6 12.3 112.9 67.7 50.2 1.7 7.9 21.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 2.9 13.4 7.5 107.9 68.9 49.3 2.0 5.9 11.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 17.7 23.3 14.8 117.1 67.3 50.8 6.7 14.5 22.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 2.3 18.6 6.6 95.6 70.2 49.8 1.1 4.8 17.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 10.6 13.8 8.4 110.7 68.1 50.9 3.3 6.9 13.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 2.2 14.8 7.7 105.6 70.4 47.4 1.9 4.9 13.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 11.8 17.1 9.9 105.9 67.6 48.5 2.3 6.3 14.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 3.9 17.0 7.3 97.1 69.4 48.0 1.6 8.4 15.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 3.6 18.5 7.0 109.7 69.0 49.8 1.1 7.9 16.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 3.3 14.4 7.3 101.4 69.8 49.0 0.8 7.2 11.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 1.5 13.8 6.0 83.9 67.3 48.2 0.4 3.3 13.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 21.5 28.0 13.5 113.6 66.3 50.3 6.4 16.0 27.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 10.0 11.6 7.0 104.6 68.0 49.6 0.7 5.6 9.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------