***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.09.2013.-15.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 9999.0 0.0 8.1 90.1 64.7 49.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 14.2 20.9 9.7 98.1 65.7 50.2 2.4 11.0 21.1 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 3.6 14.2 8.0 85.5 61.2 48.6 2.5 8.0 18.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 16.4 18.2 8.0 83.2 60.5 47.5 1.6 13.6 18.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 4.2 13.1 7.9 75.5 58.4 46.2 0.6 8.9 15.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 2.1 5.9 12.2 100.6 57.1 47.8 1.4 4.9 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 11.2 15.7 10.2 102.3 64.8 50.6 2.9 7.4 16.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 19.4 21.3 9.5 79.6 56.7 46.0 5.4 14.9 23.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 4.7 13.5 7.8 71.1 58.2 46.6 3.1 10.4 18.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 5.5 12.5 8.9 71.0 53.7 45.1 3.1 11.2 15.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 2.9 12.2 7.4 76.2 58.4 45.8 0.4 6.0 15.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 3.1 12.7 8.3 91.3 63.0 47.5 2.0 6.6 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 2.0 7.7 10.5 103.9 63.5 48.1 1.9 4.2 10.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 15.4 15.2 10.1 85.2 57.3 46.9 2.9 7.4 24.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 1.2 6.9 7.3 91.2 64.1 49.3 0.2 2.4 9.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 9.2 7.9 8.9 92.0 60.1 47.0 1.1 6.6 10.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 16.1 22.1 10.9 108.6 65.9 51.8 1.7 12.4 22.2 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 5.3 11.1 10.4 71.9 52.1 43.7 3.6 10.6 18.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 13.5 19.0 9.2 95.7 66.1 49.9 2.6 8.4 18.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 19.9 16.3 13.6 78.1 50.9 44.6 6.1 16.0 25.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 3.9 21.5 7.2 76.4 62.8 46.4 2.5 8.1 24.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 15.4 21.5 11.0 108.8 66.1 51.4 3.6 10.3 21.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 12.3 19.7 8.8 93.3 64.3 50.2 2.9 7.6 20.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 4.4 12.1 9.2 77.1 55.9 45.1 2.1 10.1 21.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 3.4 18.8 8.7 83.8 58.5 46.6 2.4 7.4 24.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 1.1 4.8 8.8 105.0 63.7 49.8 0.6 2.5 5.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 4.7 23.2 9.2 89.6 61.9 48.4 1.2 10.6 25.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 8.4 8.6 8.0 88.4 60.5 47.7 0.5 5.4 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 12.6 24.8 11.7 75.9 51.3 43.6 7.9 23.5 30.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 13.1 13.4 9.1 94.8 64.1 49.8 3.1 10.3 13.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------