***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.09.2013.-08.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 9999.0 0.0 8.9 97.0 62.3 45.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 5.6 5.1 9.2 89.9 58.8 47.8 0.6 3.2 7.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 7.5 7.2 9.5 97.9 55.6 48.1 0.4 4.4 9.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 13.4 20.5 9.5 103.1 66.1 50.9 3.7 8.3 20.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 8.8 15.4 9.9 99.8 62.9 51.0 2.4 5.9 16.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 3.8 9.6 13.9 108.3 65.5 53.0 2.6 7.7 9.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 8.1 8.4 9.5 94.2 61.2 48.7 1.0 6.0 9.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 8.6 26.4 12.3 100.0 63.3 52.6 11.9 17.4 26.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 10.8 14.7 10.4 99.4 60.6 49.9 3.9 8.4 17.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 3.7 9.0 12.1 95.5 60.2 50.3 2.9 6.8 19.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 10.4 15.3 9.2 98.7 65.7 51.9 3.2 7.5 15.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 14.0 20.4 9.4 102.1 66.5 53.2 2.2 9.3 20.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 13.6 18.4 10.8 103.0 64.6 53.0 4.5 11.1 18.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 5.8 14.3 13.4 97.5 57.5 49.5 1.8 11.3 16.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 4.4 6.8 9.5 119.0 72.7 53.8 0.4 1.8 5.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 11.4 12.4 9.8 100.2 65.3 52.6 3.4 9.2 12.9 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 2.2 8.8 8.7 83.0 60.9 46.5 1.7 5.2 10.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 17.1 16.1 14.9 95.7 58.8 49.7 1.9 14.3 17.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 9.0 8.6 9.2 91.0 58.1 47.9 2.2 5.4 9.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 7.5 21.7 18.6 103.1 64.6 52.8 3.9 15.3 22.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 3.0 7.3 9.1 102.7 59.2 48.9 1.1 6.0 11.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 5.1 12.3 9.0 83.9 59.0 48.1 5.0 10.6 13.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 8.1 6.6 9.8 92.6 56.0 47.8 1.8 5.7 12.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 10.5 10.2 12.6 96.5 56.8 49.2 1.1 6.8 15.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 8.8 10.9 10.7 101.8 62.5 48.3 0.5 6.7 11.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 3.4 13.1 10.0 119.9 71.7 55.5 1.0 7.0 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 5.5 7.6 10.4 97.2 61.5 47.8 0.0 3.1 9.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 9.2 15.4 9.5 108.9 70.2 53.0 1.5 6.4 11.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 7.8 23.5 16.5 99.4 61.3 51.0 9.0 15.8 27.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 5.8 4.9 9.5 94.8 59.1 48.8 0.5 3.5 6.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------