***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.08.2013.-01.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 85 15 100 9999.0 0.0 16.4 127.0 66.8 61.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 9.0 18.9 16.4 125.5 69.9 60.9 3.8 5.6 14.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 16.0 19.8 14.1 110.4 66.9 57.8 4.1 14.2 19.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 11.8 22.6 15.4 120.4 72.4 61.0 3.9 8.5 20.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 13.2 22.4 14.3 110.5 67.6 58.5 4.3 10.1 21.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 12.0 14.9 14.1 103.6 63.6 55.2 2.5 9.9 17.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 42 58 100 11.3 13.7 17.3 133.6 74.3 63.4 2.6 5.8 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 24.8 21.7 13.4 96.9 61.2 54.9 7.4 20.0 30.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 11.3 14.5 13.9 103.7 65.0 57.2 5.3 7.7 15.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 16.3 19.7 14.9 102.7 63.7 57.0 6.9 12.6 22.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 13.8 16.3 12.2 100.1 63.6 55.4 5.5 10.8 17.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 12.8 14.0 10.5 90.9 59.0 53.6 2.5 9.5 17.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 12.1 11.2 11.7 89.0 58.9 52.8 2.3 7.6 15.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 16.1 19.1 18.6 125.0 68.5 60.8 9.6 14.0 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 6.3 8.1 14.7 126.6 74.4 61.9 0.6 2.6 5.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 14.4 20.6 12.4 99.7 63.8 54.6 1.3 10.7 24.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 43 57 100 19.4 23.3 17.7 139.5 75.6 64.3 6.7 11.6 16.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 13.5 14.5 17.8 115.8 67.0 60.0 6.7 12.6 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 11.2 12.2 15.3 116.1 67.9 58.6 5.9 8.6 12.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 17.4 19.0 18.3 111.1 64.2 58.7 12.2 15.6 19.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 10.1 19.0 14.5 110.0 66.3 59.1 3.9 6.7 18.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 12.6 18.6 17.4 123.6 70.8 61.1 6.6 9.5 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 12.2 19.3 14.3 108.3 66.0 56.8 4.8 8.4 19.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 14.0 24.5 16.6 116.3 69.6 60.1 4.5 9.5 22.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 10.4 19.1 18.7 128.8 70.7 63.5 3.4 8.3 17.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 85 15 100 10.9 12.1 9.8 84.6 56.9 52.0 3.0 8.5 18.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 14.2 19.4 19.4 134.5 69.4 63.5 2.9 11.5 15.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 7.7 16.7 13.8 114.3 70.6 58.8 0.6 4.9 14.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 23.0 26.9 18.7 115.9 67.1 59.2 12.8 19.4 25.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 10.7 11.8 15.5 120.8 67.6 59.5 3.6 8.0 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------