***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.08.2013.-22.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 9999.0 0.0 25.4 0.3 58.2 56.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 25.2 25.2 24.9 -0.1 54.0 50.1 24.0 24.8 25.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 24.6 24.9 25.4 0.3 57.9 55.7 24.0 24.4 25.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 85 15 100 17.8 17.9 23.9 0.1 56.5 54.4 17.0 17.5 18.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 85 15 100 25.3 25.5 24.0 0.2 59.9 56.2 24.5 25.1 25.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 24.4 25.1 22.2 0.4 66.4 61.0 23.6 24.2 25.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 24.8 24.7 24.8 -0.1 52.7 50.1 23.2 24.5 25.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 14.0 14.1 22.2 0.2 61.7 56.2 13.3 13.8 14.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 86 14 100 24.6 25.1 24.5 0.4 62.3 57.9 24.1 24.4 25.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 24.6 24.8 23.0 0.2 62.6 56.9 23.8 24.4 24.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 25.1 25.4 23.8 0.4 65.1 59.0 24.1 24.9 25.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 24.4 24.5 23.5 0.4 63.9 59.1 23.7 24.2 24.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 25.5 25.8 23.4 0.5 66.1 61.1 25.0 25.2 25.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 24.8 24.7 23.5 0.0 56.2 50.9 23.9 24.4 25.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 25.4 25.4 24.8 0.2 57.4 55.9 24.7 25.1 26.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 26.0 26.4 23.8 0.5 66.0 60.4 25.2 25.9 26.4 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 22.7 24.0 24.3 -0.3 50.5 47.0 22.9 24.0 25.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 23.7 23.7 21.9 0.0 58.7 52.6 23.0 23.5 23.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 24.8 24.8 25.1 0.0 55.8 51.6 23.7 24.6 25.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 20.1 19.9 19.7 -0.3 54.2 48.2 19.4 19.8 20.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 85 15 100 24.8 25.0 25.1 0.3 59.2 56.3 24.2 24.7 25.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 23.3 24.6 24.3 -0.4 50.6 46.7 23.5 24.6 25.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 24.9 25.2 25.1 0.1 58.3 53.8 23.5 24.6 25.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 24.5 24.4 23.6 0.1 58.7 53.9 23.7 24.3 24.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 25.0 25.1 24.0 0.2 59.4 54.8 23.8 24.6 25.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 25.2 25.5 23.1 0.3 61.3 57.6 24.6 25.0 25.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 24.9 24.9 24.5 0.2 57.9 54.7 23.7 24.5 25.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 85 15 100 25.5 25.6 24.4 0.2 59.5 56.5 24.8 25.4 25.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 19.2 19.2 20.9 -0.1 55.7 50.0 18.7 19.0 19.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 24.9 24.8 25.3 0.0 55.3 52.5 23.6 24.6 25.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------