***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.09.2013.-22.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 9999.0 0.0 24.0 0.3 55.1 52.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 21.3 23.0 23.6 0.0 51.0 49.9 21.6 22.8 24.8 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 21.5 23.5 24.0 0.3 54.0 52.4 22.6 23.3 25.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 15.0 16.5 22.3 0.0 48.8 49.4 15.8 16.5 17.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 21.9 24.4 22.5 0.1 50.8 51.0 23.1 24.4 25.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 21.8 24.4 20.7 0.3 58.5 52.3 22.1 23.1 24.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 20.9 22.6 23.4 0.0 49.1 49.6 21.2 22.7 24.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 12.0 13.3 20.9 0.2 56.5 51.1 12.0 13.0 14.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 21.7 24.3 22.9 0.3 55.0 52.5 23.1 24.1 24.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 21.1 24.4 21.6 0.2 55.6 51.8 22.6 23.4 25.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 21.7 24.7 22.2 0.3 56.5 52.5 23.5 24.2 25.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 21.2 24.1 22.0 0.3 57.8 51.9 22.8 23.9 24.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 22.7 25.1 21.6 0.3 56.5 52.0 23.2 24.9 25.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 21.2 23.4 22.3 0.1 49.3 51.3 21.9 23.4 25.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 22.2 24.0 22.8 0.0 51.9 49.4 23.1 23.8 24.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 23.1 25.4 22.0 0.3 56.9 52.1 24.1 25.1 26.0 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 20.6 22.0 23.0 -0.1 47.5 48.2 20.8 22.2 23.9 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 20.2 22.5 20.7 0.1 53.5 50.9 21.5 22.4 23.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 20.9 22.9 23.8 0.1 52.1 50.7 21.5 22.8 24.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 17.4 18.8 18.5 -0.1 50.1 48.6 17.9 18.8 20.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 21.8 23.8 23.6 0.3 53.9 52.4 22.9 23.8 24.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 20.8 22.4 23.1 -0.1 47.8 48.0 21.6 22.7 24.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 21.0 23.1 23.8 0.2 52.2 51.9 21.8 22.9 24.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 21.3 23.4 22.4 0.3 54.1 52.1 22.1 23.4 24.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 21.6 23.1 22.5 0.1 51.4 51.3 22.5 23.0 24.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 23.0 25.0 21.5 0.0 53.6 49.8 22.7 24.7 25.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 21.4 23.0 23.0 0.2 53.0 51.5 22.1 22.8 24.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 22.7 25.2 22.7 0.0 52.5 49.9 22.8 25.0 25.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 15.6 18.4 19.7 0.0 52.5 50.2 17.6 18.1 19.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 20.9 22.7 23.9 0.1 52.6 50.8 21.6 22.5 24.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------