***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.09.2013.-08.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 9999.0 0.0 25.4 -0.2 47.6 49.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 25.2 23.4 25.0 -0.5 41.2 45.5 22.2 24.3 26.7 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 22.9 24.0 25.4 -0.2 46.7 48.5 22.8 24.3 25.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 17.5 16.5 23.8 -0.6 43.1 45.8 15.7 16.8 18.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 25.3 24.1 23.8 -0.5 42.5 46.7 23.3 24.6 26.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 24.1 23.4 21.9 -0.3 43.7 48.4 22.7 23.7 24.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 24.8 22.5 24.9 -0.5 41.7 45.7 22.1 23.9 26.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 14.0 12.6 22.1 -0.5 42.8 46.7 12.1 13.5 14.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 25.0 23.8 24.1 -0.3 45.1 48.1 23.3 24.2 26.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 24.8 23.5 22.7 -0.4 43.2 47.1 23.3 24.0 25.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 22.8 23.7 23.5 -0.3 44.5 48.7 23.0 24.2 26.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 22.5 23.2 23.3 -0.3 44.2 48.9 22.4 23.7 25.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 23.7 24.6 22.9 -0.2 44.3 49.5 23.9 25.1 26.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 22.5 24.2 23.4 -0.5 45.7 46.3 23.5 24.5 25.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 25.6 24.8 24.5 -0.4 45.7 47.3 24.0 25.1 26.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 23.9 24.5 23.3 -0.3 45.0 48.8 24.2 25.3 27.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 24.5 22.5 24.5 -0.7 40.7 43.9 22.0 23.4 25.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 24.1 22.9 21.7 -0.6 42.0 45.1 21.9 23.4 24.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 24.9 23.2 25.2 -0.4 43.1 46.3 22.4 23.9 26.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 18.3 19.1 19.5 -0.8 40.3 42.4 17.9 19.9 20.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 25.0 23.8 24.9 -0.3 46.8 47.9 22.8 24.1 26.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 22.8 22.9 24.4 -0.7 40.4 43.7 22.6 24.1 26.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 22.5 23.7 25.1 -0.3 47.3 47.6 22.9 23.9 26.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 22.3 23.8 23.5 -0.4 45.8 47.1 23.0 24.0 25.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 25.1 24.0 23.9 -0.3 46.9 47.5 22.8 24.2 25.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 25.4 24.6 22.9 -0.4 41.6 46.4 22.9 24.9 25.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 24.9 23.6 24.5 -0.3 46.6 47.8 22.8 23.9 25.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 25.6 24.7 24.2 -0.5 43.7 46.7 24.0 25.1 26.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 19.7 18.4 20.6 -0.7 40.2 44.3 17.4 19.1 20.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 24.9 22.8 25.3 -0.4 42.0 46.8 22.5 24.1 26.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------