***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.08.2013.-01.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 88 12 100 9999.0 0.0 27.0 0.6 59.8 60.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 88 12 100 26.9 27.1 26.3 -0.1 56.3 52.9 25.2 26.7 27.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 91 9 100 26.4 26.7 26.9 0.5 59.6 58.3 25.8 26.3 27.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 19.9 20.7 25.5 0.8 65.3 61.1 18.4 19.7 20.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 27.6 28.4 26.0 0.8 64.9 61.9 25.9 27.5 28.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 27.6 27.7 24.3 1.2 68.9 65.3 24.7 26.8 27.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 88 12 100 26.8 26.7 26.3 0.0 57.1 54.0 24.9 26.6 26.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 16.2 16.6 23.7 0.4 59.4 57.1 14.6 15.9 17.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 86 14 100 27.1 27.7 26.6 0.8 66.3 61.9 25.5 26.9 27.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 86 14 100 27.0 27.5 24.7 0.6 62.6 59.1 25.0 26.8 27.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 85 15 100 27.3 27.9 25.8 0.9 65.3 62.1 25.8 27.1 27.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 26.9 27.4 25.2 0.8 64.2 61.3 25.1 26.7 27.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 29.0 28.9 25.8 1.3 71.8 66.5 25.9 28.0 28.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 26.9 26.9 24.7 -0.3 53.2 50.2 25.0 26.6 27.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 85 15 100 27.7 28.5 27.5 0.9 66.6 62.4 26.1 27.4 28.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 29.4 29.5 26.1 1.3 71.4 66.0 26.9 28.5 29.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 85 15 100 26.0 25.8 25.5 -0.3 52.5 49.5 24.5 25.8 26.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 26.1 26.3 23.1 0.0 56.8 52.9 24.3 25.9 26.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 88 12 100 26.9 26.8 26.4 0.0 56.7 53.8 25.0 26.7 27.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 22.6 22.2 20.9 -0.4 52.3 48.6 20.5 22.2 23.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 86 14 100 27.1 27.3 27.0 0.5 62.1 58.8 25.5 27.0 27.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 26.7 26.5 25.4 -0.5 50.7 48.2 24.8 26.5 27.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 87 13 100 26.9 27.0 26.4 0.1 57.2 55.1 25.0 26.7 27.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 86 14 100 26.5 26.6 25.0 0.1 57.2 53.9 24.9 26.3 27.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 86 14 100 26.8 27.1 25.9 0.5 61.5 58.5 25.7 26.5 27.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 43 57 100 28.5 28.3 25.3 1.1 68.1 64.4 25.7 27.7 28.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 88 12 100 26.8 27.0 26.2 0.5 60.4 58.3 25.1 26.7 27.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 44 56 100 28.5 28.4 26.6 1.0 68.0 63.2 25.6 27.4 28.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 21.8 21.5 22.0 -0.3 53.6 49.9 20.0 21.4 21.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 89 11 100 26.6 27.1 26.7 0.2 57.9 55.7 25.2 26.4 27.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------