***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.08.2013.-22.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 0.0 15.4 0.2 60.8 56.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 11.4 11.9 14.9 0.0 54.1 51.1 11.4 11.9 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 14.2 14.7 15.2 0.3 62.2 57.7 13.5 14.1 14.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 9.9 10.0 13.3 0.1 57.2 53.5 8.8 9.7 10.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 11.1 11.2 13.2 0.2 59.3 55.8 10.7 11.0 11.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 10.3 10.4 11.6 0.4 65.1 60.2 9.9 10.2 10.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 11.8 12.2 15.0 0.0 54.0 51.5 11.8 12.2 12.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 5.7 5.7 11.3 0.0 54.6 52.3 5.4 5.6 5.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 12.2 12.3 13.7 0.3 63.5 58.4 11.8 12.1 12.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 11.9 11.8 12.0 0.1 58.2 54.9 11.5 11.8 12.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 11.6 11.8 12.8 0.3 60.7 57.8 11.2 11.5 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 10.2 10.3 12.2 0.2 61.3 57.0 9.9 10.1 10.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 11.1 11.4 12.0 0.4 67.0 62.2 10.8 11.0 11.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 12.5 12.5 13.5 0.2 59.1 55.9 12.0 12.4 12.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 13.0 13.2 14.4 0.3 63.3 59.5 12.6 12.9 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 12.3 12.5 12.7 0.4 67.1 61.5 11.9 12.1 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 11.8 12.3 14.4 -0.1 48.3 48.4 12.0 12.3 12.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 10.7 10.6 11.2 0.0 56.3 53.0 10.2 10.5 10.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 11.6 12.2 15.0 0.1 57.6 53.4 11.5 12.1 12.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 7.0 6.8 9.4 -0.2 47.2 47.3 6.6 6.8 7.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 11.8 11.8 14.7 0.2 61.6 57.1 11.5 11.7 11.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 10.9 11.3 14.4 -0.1 49.0 48.6 11.2 11.4 11.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 11.7 11.8 14.9 0.2 61.5 57.6 11.1 11.5 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 12.1 12.1 13.3 0.2 62.8 56.9 11.4 11.9 12.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 11.5 12.1 14.0 0.1 60.3 54.1 11.6 12.0 12.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 11.2 11.3 12.0 0.3 63.3 58.7 10.7 11.1 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 12.4 12.4 14.6 0.2 60.7 55.3 11.7 12.2 12.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 10.9 11.0 13.8 0.2 61.5 57.6 10.4 10.8 11.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 9.6 9.5 10.6 0.0 56.0 52.8 9.1 9.4 9.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 12.5 12.5 15.2 0.1 56.8 53.6 12.0 12.4 12.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------