***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.09.2013.-22.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 9999.0 0.0 13.7 0.0 55.8 50.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 9.6 11.2 13.4 -0.2 51.0 47.6 9.9 11.2 11.6 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 12.0 13.2 13.5 0.1 55.9 50.4 12.4 13.1 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 7.4 8.5 11.5 -0.2 51.3 46.2 8.0 8.5 9.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 9.2 10.7 11.4 -0.1 54.5 48.0 9.3 10.5 11.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 9.9 9.8 9.8 0.0 56.5 50.9 8.4 9.3 10.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 9.7 11.1 13.3 -0.2 51.3 47.2 10.3 11.0 12.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 4.3 5.3 9.8 -0.1 50.7 48.5 4.8 5.3 6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 11.7 11.7 11.9 0.0 58.2 50.0 10.5 11.4 12.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 9.8 11.2 10.3 0.0 52.5 48.9 10.1 11.0 11.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 9.6 11.0 11.1 0.1 57.8 49.9 10.0 10.6 11.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 8.4 9.4 10.7 0.0 54.3 49.5 8.5 9.3 10.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 8.7 10.0 10.1 0.0 55.0 49.9 9.3 9.9 11.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 10.5 11.6 11.9 0.0 52.1 49.9 10.9 11.6 12.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 10.5 12.0 12.3 -0.1 54.7 48.3 10.8 11.6 12.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 10.4 11.8 10.7 0.1 57.2 50.0 10.4 11.6 12.1 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 10.0 11.2 12.8 -0.3 47.5 45.8 10.5 11.3 12.4 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 8.8 10.2 9.6 -0.1 50.5 48.3 9.3 10.2 10.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 10.0 11.3 13.4 -0.1 52.4 48.7 10.1 11.3 11.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 5.1 6.3 8.2 -0.2 47.2 46.7 5.2 6.4 6.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 9.8 11.2 12.9 0.0 57.6 50.0 9.9 10.8 11.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 9.2 10.3 12.8 -0.3 47.3 46.3 9.3 10.4 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 9.1 11.1 13.3 0.0 55.7 50.2 9.8 10.8 11.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 9.9 10.7 11.6 0.1 55.1 50.1 10.1 10.7 11.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 10.3 11.8 12.2 -0.1 54.2 48.6 10.5 11.6 12.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 9.2 10.5 10.3 -0.1 51.0 47.7 9.0 10.4 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 9.5 11.6 12.9 0.0 54.9 49.1 10.3 11.1 12.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 8.8 9.8 11.8 -0.1 53.6 47.5 9.0 9.6 11.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 7.9 9.1 9.1 -0.1 50.4 47.8 7.9 9.0 9.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 9.9 11.5 13.6 -0.1 53.2 48.6 10.5 11.2 12.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------