***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.09.2013.-15.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 0.0 14.8 0.0 47.0 50.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 10.1 11.1 14.6 0.0 45.8 49.7 10.3 11.4 12.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 14.3 13.9 14.6 0.1 49.6 50.6 13.0 13.9 14.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 8.2 9.4 12.6 -0.2 46.3 46.8 8.3 9.5 10.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 9.1 9.6 12.5 -0.2 44.6 48.2 8.6 10.7 11.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 8.3 9.5 10.9 0.0 52.7 51.3 8.1 9.3 11.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 10.4 11.2 14.6 0.0 45.5 49.5 10.8 11.3 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 3.9 5.0 10.7 -0.2 44.8 47.5 4.5 5.2 6.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 12.4 11.9 12.9 -0.1 45.4 49.3 10.6 12.0 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 10.0 11.0 11.3 -0.2 44.6 47.9 9.9 11.7 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 9.7 11.1 12.1 0.0 50.5 50.8 9.4 11.1 11.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 9.7 9.2 11.6 0.0 48.5 50.8 8.2 9.2 11.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 10.7 10.3 11.2 0.1 52.5 53.0 9.0 10.3 11.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 10.5 11.6 12.9 0.0 45.4 51.5 11.0 11.9 12.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 11.2 12.6 13.5 0.0 55.4 50.0 10.8 12.5 13.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 12.1 11.9 11.8 0.1 53.2 52.2 10.3 11.7 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 10.8 11.7 14.0 -0.1 42.6 47.8 11.5 11.8 12.8 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 8.5 9.6 10.7 -0.1 44.2 48.4 8.5 9.9 11.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 10.5 11.6 14.6 0.0 46.4 50.3 10.3 11.7 12.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 4.7 5.6 9.1 -0.3 42.8 46.6 5.2 5.8 8.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 11.8 11.1 13.9 -0.1 45.8 48.8 10.3 11.3 12.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 9.7 10.8 14.0 -0.2 41.2 47.9 10.0 11.1 12.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 9.5 10.8 14.4 0.1 47.0 51.5 9.8 11.1 12.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 10.2 11.6 12.7 0.1 48.7 51.0 10.3 11.6 12.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 10.1 11.3 13.3 -0.1 48.6 48.6 9.9 11.4 12.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 10.7 10.3 11.4 0.0 50.8 51.7 9.2 10.3 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 12.2 11.7 14.0 0.0 48.8 49.9 10.6 11.7 12.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 10.8 10.5 13.0 -0.1 51.7 49.0 8.3 10.3 11.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 9.7 8.9 10.2 -0.1 44.5 49.6 8.6 9.1 10.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 10.9 11.8 14.8 0.0 46.7 50.3 10.9 12.0 12.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------