***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.09.2013.-08.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 0.0 15.1 -0.4 43.8 45.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 10.8 11.2 14.9 -0.6 39.6 41.8 11.1 12.2 12.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 14.1 13.2 15.0 -0.3 42.6 46.2 13.1 13.5 15.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 7.7 8.3 13.3 -0.3 41.6 44.9 7.7 8.6 10.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 9.7 10.4 13.1 -0.2 42.8 46.0 10.0 11.2 12.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 10.2 9.6 11.8 0.1 46.4 50.2 9.4 9.8 10.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 11.0 12.0 14.9 -0.5 41.6 42.4 11.6 12.5 12.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 4.1 4.4 11.3 -0.4 37.7 43.9 4.3 5.2 6.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 12.4 11.8 13.4 -0.2 41.0 46.6 11.2 12.1 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 12.3 11.5 11.8 -0.3 38.3 44.7 11.4 12.1 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 10.6 11.5 12.8 0.0 46.6 50.0 10.9 11.6 12.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 10.4 10.0 12.3 0.0 43.8 48.8 9.4 10.1 10.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 11.1 10.9 12.0 0.2 48.8 51.5 10.3 10.9 11.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 13.0 12.3 13.3 -0.3 42.1 45.1 11.7 12.6 13.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 13.2 12.9 14.3 -0.1 50.2 50.0 12.3 12.9 13.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 12.4 12.1 12.7 0.2 49.2 52.0 11.6 12.1 12.9 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 11.3 12.1 14.4 -0.7 37.3 40.8 11.8 12.5 13.4 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 9.8 10.5 11.1 -0.4 36.4 43.0 10.2 11.1 11.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 10.9 11.8 14.9 -0.5 40.2 43.2 11.4 12.0 13.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 5.8 6.1 9.4 -0.6 35.0 39.9 5.8 7.2 7.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 12.2 11.3 14.4 -0.3 41.2 45.7 10.7 11.9 12.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 12.2 11.4 14.3 -0.7 37.4 40.7 11.2 12.0 12.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 12.4 11.7 14.8 -0.3 43.5 46.0 10.6 12.0 12.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 12.3 11.6 13.1 -0.2 39.8 46.0 11.4 12.0 13.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 10.6 11.4 13.6 -0.4 41.6 44.3 11.0 11.8 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 10.1 10.8 12.0 -0.1 44.4 47.2 10.4 11.0 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 10.6 11.3 14.3 -0.4 43.5 44.8 11.0 11.7 12.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 9.9 10.5 13.8 -0.1 47.1 48.9 10.1 10.8 11.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 9.2 8.3 10.6 -0.4 37.5 43.3 8.1 8.7 10.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 11.1 11.8 15.1 -0.5 41.7 43.2 11.5 12.1 12.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------