***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.08.2013.-01.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 25 75 100 9999.0 0.0 17.8 1.2 74.0 71.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 41 59 100 15.0 14.5 16.9 0.7 67.2 65.3 12.6 13.7 14.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 23 77 100 17.5 17.9 17.7 1.2 78.1 73.3 15.3 16.0 16.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 12.2 12.6 15.7 1.1 72.0 69.7 10.2 11.2 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 26 74 100 13.8 14.1 15.9 1.1 75.6 72.4 12.0 12.7 13.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 15 85 100 12.8 13.7 14.0 1.3 83.2 77.6 11.4 11.8 12.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 42 58 100 14.9 15.1 17.2 0.8 66.7 66.4 13.1 13.8 15.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 7.3 8.0 13.3 0.6 66.7 64.3 6.4 7.0 8.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 18 82 100 15.3 15.8 16.4 1.3 79.6 75.9 12.8 13.6 14.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 26 74 100 14.7 14.6 14.4 0.9 73.8 70.6 12.6 13.6 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 14.4 14.5 15.2 0.9 73.0 70.4 12.5 13.4 13.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 12.6 12.7 14.3 0.8 70.8 67.8 11.2 11.8 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 17 83 100 13.8 15.0 14.7 1.4 86.8 80.2 12.1 13.1 13.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 30 70 100 15.5 15.6 15.7 0.9 70.8 68.2 13.6 14.3 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 16 84 100 16.2 16.3 17.5 1.4 76.7 76.0 14.4 15.3 16.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 18 82 100 15.1 15.8 15.4 1.4 83.0 78.5 13.5 14.5 14.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 14.6 15.3 16.3 0.5 65.1 62.7 13.2 14.3 15.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 13.1 12.9 13.3 0.8 69.5 67.1 11.7 12.4 12.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 15.2 15.4 17.1 0.9 70.4 67.8 12.9 13.7 15.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 8.8 9.3 10.9 0.4 63.7 60.2 7.4 8.6 9.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 25 75 100 14.8 15.4 17.4 1.2 78.6 72.8 12.6 13.2 14.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 45 55 100 14.1 14.0 16.4 0.5 64.1 62.3 12.8 13.1 14.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 27 73 100 14.6 14.7 17.2 1.1 74.4 71.9 12.5 13.5 14.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 25 75 100 14.9 15.1 15.5 1.0 73.7 70.7 13.1 13.9 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 14.6 15.1 16.8 1.0 72.1 69.1 12.7 13.6 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 24 76 100 13.9 14.3 14.3 1.3 81.9 75.0 12.4 13.0 13.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 14.9 15.5 17.1 1.1 72.2 70.1 12.1 13.5 15.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 25 75 100 13.7 13.9 16.5 1.3 76.8 74.4 12.0 12.9 13.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 12.3 12.4 12.5 0.7 71.3 67.3 10.4 11.1 12.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 15.4 15.5 17.5 0.9 69.7 68.0 13.0 13.8 14.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------