***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.08.2014.-21.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 34.1 58.0 30.9 87.0 50.0 44.8 45.2 58.0 61.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 56.6 53.0 37.3 97.9 55.5 49.9 28.6 52.5 61.2 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 36.3 58.5 32.4 90.7 47.4 45.0 24.0 61.3 69.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 41.6 67.4 34.2 95.8 55.2 45.0 40.3 64.5 77.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 31.1 59.8 37.7 101.2 57.6 47.9 32.8 50.2 66.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 50.4 45.3 44.8 93.9 53.9 49.2 27.8 44.0 57.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 53.0 53.9 39.8 104.9 60.8 52.6 24.7 45.8 55.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 61.2 87.4 37.1 88.2 52.6 44.2 64.7 83.5 105.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 35.0 58.4 37.7 96.7 52.7 45.4 41.6 52.2 68.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 40.5 62.3 41.5 93.1 53.9 45.2 37.3 61.4 72.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 32.7 59.0 31.2 91.6 55.3 45.9 33.4 52.0 63.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 30.0 43.7 28.0 85.1 50.6 43.4 36.0 43.7 61.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 33.2 50.9 33.5 87.0 54.7 45.1 36.5 44.7 68.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 41.6 61.7 42.5 89.0 46.4 43.1 41.9 65.6 80.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 22.0 42.8 33.5 101.3 58.6 49.6 21.7 37.2 44.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 32.4 54.0 32.6 92.7 57.6 47.8 36.4 51.8 58.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 51.5 54.9 39.8 103.9 60.5 52.5 34.2 45.7 56.0 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 44.6 67.2 48.8 93.4 50.8 44.6 43.8 66.8 79.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 35.3 58.3 35.8 96.1 53.4 48.7 31.3 54.6 67.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 51.7 65.1 52.4 92.5 51.3 45.4 57.6 64.3 90.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 29.0 55.6 32.3 91.0 50.5 43.4 44.4 55.3 76.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 55.1 50.1 39.7 101.2 56.4 51.1 33.2 45.3 63.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 30.0 39.9 35.1 94.4 49.6 47.1 29.7 40.3 66.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 40.9 67.1 41.7 91.5 49.2 44.0 37.5 67.4 92.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 64.1 59.0 40.3 100.7 53.5 48.7 38.2 58.4 69.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 25.8 38.7 30.0 92.5 57.4 45.9 30.9 35.6 43.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 34.8 57.6 39.4 97.0 52.9 48.2 34.2 54.0 66.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 23.1 47.5 33.9 98.3 58.4 48.0 28.5 35.8 49.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 66.4 97.8 51.8 94.0 51.2 45.5 73.5 96.8 122.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 31.4 43.8 35.6 95.4 52.5 48.7 28.1 42.5 49.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------