***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.09.2014.-21.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 3.6 16.1 6.4 106.7 68.3 48.0 2.2 7.6 13.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 3.6 12.1 7.0 99.6 63.6 46.5 4.1 7.6 12.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 10.7 10.2 6.3 101.8 62.9 46.8 1.6 7.0 10.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 9.8 18.4 9.4 125.8 72.1 48.9 3.2 6.3 12.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 8.5 17.9 9.2 121.9 74.0 49.6 2.8 5.3 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 8.0 10.3 11.9 111.2 69.7 53.1 2.9 6.0 10.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 4.0 10.4 7.7 106.0 65.2 48.0 3.9 7.8 10.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 18.6 21.6 9.6 109.7 68.0 52.9 6.5 15.5 20.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 10.9 15.1 8.9 114.5 70.7 50.0 2.5 7.8 11.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 10.8 16.9 10.1 111.8 69.2 51.6 5.4 7.9 16.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 10.6 18.4 8.6 120.3 72.3 50.9 1.4 7.9 11.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 8.8 14.3 7.9 111.3 70.7 51.6 2.7 5.3 11.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 9.1 11.9 9.0 105.8 70.5 51.5 2.8 7.3 10.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 4.5 18.5 9.1 104.1 65.6 48.3 2.6 9.0 19.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 7.1 12.9 8.9 124.5 76.7 51.6 1.7 4.4 7.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 6.5 8.8 8.9 115.5 71.3 50.7 2.7 5.0 7.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 10.6 11.1 7.3 92.3 62.8 46.7 4.9 7.0 12.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 15.4 23.8 11.3 111.6 69.7 50.9 3.6 11.3 22.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 3.1 11.4 6.6 97.0 61.9 46.6 2.4 6.6 14.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 21.0 26.4 12.6 109.7 68.7 53.5 7.0 17.8 23.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 8.0 12.3 7.7 118.9 69.5 48.4 2.2 4.6 10.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 10.0 13.5 7.4 98.2 66.2 49.1 2.9 7.1 13.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 4.2 12.6 6.6 97.4 62.7 47.2 2.6 8.9 13.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 12.3 12.4 9.2 109.3 67.0 48.5 2.9 5.6 11.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 12.0 15.1 8.9 117.5 68.7 49.5 3.7 8.5 14.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 10.1 16.2 7.5 101.1 68.8 53.5 2.3 7.9 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 12.1 10.6 7.8 106.0 66.4 48.9 2.3 9.0 10.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 9.2 18.6 9.5 126.3 73.9 51.1 0.7 5.1 14.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 19.3 29.7 12.1 110.9 70.6 51.7 10.9 15.1 24.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 3.0 9.3 6.5 97.7 62.1 46.3 2.3 5.9 12.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------