***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.09.2014.-14.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 11.0 22.9 8.9 112.2 67.0 53.7 0.9 6.2 22.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 12.0 21.3 10.3 119.5 69.6 55.9 2.3 8.7 18.9 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 3.6 14.7 9.9 116.0 67.8 52.8 2.2 7.8 12.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 2.8 17.9 9.8 103.9 68.1 50.9 0.7 6.5 17.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 2.2 14.9 11.7 119.3 70.8 53.8 1.3 4.8 14.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 6.9 11.1 14.1 108.5 66.2 55.9 0.5 4.3 10.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 11.4 17.4 10.1 116.9 70.1 55.7 3.2 7.9 15.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 4.2 28.3 13.4 122.6 67.1 51.3 2.6 8.4 28.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 2.6 19.3 13.0 129.4 70.9 52.9 1.5 5.7 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 2.9 17.2 14.8 128.9 69.7 52.5 2.8 6.8 16.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 1.9 18.6 11.2 125.6 72.3 54.9 0.4 3.9 16.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 8.4 11.8 9.9 116.6 66.1 51.7 1.0 6.1 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 1.7 8.9 10.9 110.4 66.7 54.3 0.2 3.4 8.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 13.4 23.8 13.5 118.7 66.9 52.7 2.4 7.6 23.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 4.5 8.1 8.3 107.3 68.7 53.9 0.2 1.8 6.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 7.0 11.5 10.4 114.7 68.8 55.6 0.1 4.3 11.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 12.6 25.3 10.6 124.6 71.5 57.3 1.7 7.8 22.4 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 3.2 20.7 17.0 126.5 69.6 50.9 2.8 7.6 18.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 13.1 17.3 10.0 118.9 67.8 55.2 3.3 8.4 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 6.3 17.9 18.0 116.6 64.4 50.5 4.1 12.5 18.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 3.5 23.3 10.5 116.9 70.6 52.2 2.7 8.1 21.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 15.5 19.0 10.0 109.5 66.8 54.9 3.1 11.9 18.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 11.2 19.1 10.0 115.6 65.8 54.1 3.0 7.1 19.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 4.1 22.0 13.9 123.6 69.6 51.3 2.1 9.5 18.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 12.7 24.0 11.1 114.9 68.0 53.7 1.2 6.6 22.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 4.3 8.5 10.0 122.3 69.1 54.6 0.2 1.0 5.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 11.7 24.1 10.8 116.0 67.7 54.6 1.7 6.6 23.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 5.7 10.0 9.4 107.1 67.3 54.0 0.5 2.7 9.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 9.6 28.7 17.3 123.5 66.7 50.8 10.6 21.3 28.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 12.0 14.1 10.1 117.3 69.1 54.7 2.8 9.9 11.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------