***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.09.2014.-07.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 0.6 9.2 10.8 130.9 71.0 50.9 0.0 1.3 8.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 1.7 10.2 12.1 124.0 72.2 54.4 0.4 3.5 9.3 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 3.0 13.4 10.7 126.1 70.1 54.2 0.4 6.3 10.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 5.1 25.2 9.9 131.4 73.3 54.8 2.5 12.2 19.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 2.9 19.5 10.2 126.0 72.6 55.0 0.4 6.0 15.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 10.1 12.8 14.3 131.1 74.1 56.8 3.0 8.0 11.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 2.2 13.2 12.9 132.4 72.6 54.5 0.1 4.8 11.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 21.4 22.1 9.4 93.8 63.9 51.0 13.5 16.6 22.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 3.8 17.6 10.6 120.6 72.4 52.3 3.4 8.4 16.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 8.9 18.9 11.2 107.1 67.4 53.6 2.9 5.0 18.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 8.3 14.5 7.7 105.4 67.0 52.8 2.4 4.7 14.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 15.2 15.3 7.0 97.1 66.6 49.9 1.3 9.3 15.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 12.7 19.2 9.6 114.3 71.1 55.0 3.1 10.2 18.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 4.3 17.2 13.3 114.4 65.7 51.8 1.5 8.9 17.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 4.8 9.4 10.1 133.4 73.0 56.9 0.2 2.5 7.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 10.3 15.4 9.3 120.0 72.9 56.4 1.5 6.8 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 8.3 16.6 11.8 121.9 71.5 55.1 0.2 5.2 14.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 16.3 23.9 14.6 114.8 69.3 54.6 1.9 13.3 18.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 9.7 11.2 11.8 125.1 71.2 54.4 2.0 6.1 9.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 19.2 21.0 15.7 105.5 66.0 53.3 2.7 14.8 21.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 1.9 11.6 9.6 124.0 70.4 50.8 0.4 4.5 10.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 12.8 14.6 11.5 112.6 67.4 53.8 4.1 11.5 14.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 7.5 12.6 11.8 127.7 69.8 54.2 1.6 4.9 12.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 3.3 19.7 12.7 115.4 67.6 53.0 1.3 6.8 17.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 2.5 14.3 13.4 145.3 76.8 56.6 0.2 5.1 13.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 8.6 13.1 8.4 128.5 71.9 56.2 0.4 6.0 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 1.3 14.2 13.9 144.0 74.7 54.0 0.0 2.7 11.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 10.9 17.2 9.8 128.9 72.8 57.1 0.4 8.2 16.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 7.2 29.4 16.2 115.9 69.2 53.8 8.7 15.0 28.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 2.1 13.8 12.1 128.9 72.4 54.2 0.4 4.4 9.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------