***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.08.2014.-31.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 13.0 8.1 4.8 36.3 43.4 34.5 6.1 8.9 14.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 2.8 4.8 7.9 62.6 48.7 42.1 3.8 4.9 12.6 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 6.6 6.3 5.5 44.1 42.5 35.9 3.8 14.3 20.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 4.0 7.8 5.1 45.4 44.6 37.6 5.7 8.7 18.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 4.5 8.1 6.5 55.6 47.3 40.8 3.7 8.9 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 3.8 2.8 4.6 35.0 39.8 34.8 1.9 9.6 17.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 8.6 5.2 9.1 74.3 50.4 46.0 2.5 5.1 11.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 69 31 0 100 7.3 11.1 4.6 37.6 38.8 31.1 7.2 16.9 30.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 4.6 7.0 5.2 41.9 40.9 34.3 6.5 8.7 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 5.6 10.1 5.5 39.8 38.6 32.8 8.8 12.4 17.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 4.0 5.9 3.8 34.7 37.4 31.7 5.5 10.2 14.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 2.7 3.2 3.2 32.4 39.0 31.6 2.9 7.1 14.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 12.4 2.4 3.9 33.7 39.8 36.1 1.6 5.2 11.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 6.6 9.8 6.6 41.4 39.7 33.0 8.3 14.0 17.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 4.0 2.7 6.2 58.5 53.5 43.6 0.5 2.4 5.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 3.3 2.1 4.0 37.9 41.3 36.9 0.8 6.8 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 12.1 11.1 10.1 83.1 55.6 46.7 4.0 8.0 15.1 30 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 5.3 9.3 5.9 36.9 38.7 31.8 8.1 11.1 13.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 5.1 9.8 7.4 58.7 48.1 41.0 5.9 9.9 13.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 70 30 0 100 7.8 12.7 6.2 41.7 38.0 32.8 12.3 14.8 21.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 3.7 5.0 4.5 36.9 40.8 33.8 4.1 6.6 20.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 13.2 12.7 10.7 87.8 57.9 48.8 4.1 9.0 14.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 4.9 7.2 6.8 54.0 45.5 40.1 5.8 8.5 20.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 5.2 6.3 5.9 39.9 40.9 33.5 5.2 8.6 20.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 13.3 8.7 6.9 50.8 47.9 41.4 3.7 11.1 17.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 11.7 3.6 4.1 39.7 43.4 39.1 0.8 7.3 20.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 13.1 8.2 6.9 48.7 47.4 39.8 3.2 8.8 21.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 2.2 3.9 5.2 49.4 47.6 39.8 0.8 5.0 12.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 68 32 0 100 8.0 10.7 6.2 38.2 37.3 30.7 9.6 19.4 25.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 9.0 5.4 7.0 54.8 46.9 40.7 2.8 6.0 10.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------