***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.08.2014.-21.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 68 32 0 100 23.4 23.5 24.0 -1.5 24.6 26.3 23.7 24.1 25.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 23.5 23.2 23.9 -1.6 24.8 26.4 24.3 24.9 25.7 30 Becej 27400G00 67 33 0 100 23.7 24.2 24.1 -1.4 25.6 27.6 24.2 24.6 25.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 67 33 0 100 17.0 17.1 22.5 -1.5 24.6 26.0 17.4 17.8 18.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 66 34 0 100 24.5 24.6 22.9 -1.3 27.6 30.0 24.7 25.5 25.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 24.6 24.0 21.9 -0.4 44.7 45.3 23.8 24.4 25.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 23.1 23.0 23.8 -1.6 24.5 26.0 23.5 24.6 25.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 13.1 13.6 21.8 -0.8 33.8 37.9 13.6 13.9 14.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 70 30 0 100 23.9 24.2 23.2 -1.3 26.7 29.6 24.2 24.7 25.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 23.8 23.9 22.2 -1.0 30.0 34.0 24.0 24.7 25.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 24.6 24.3 22.8 -1.0 32.6 34.7 24.3 25.3 25.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 23.8 23.8 22.8 -0.8 32.8 37.4 23.8 24.6 24.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 25.8 25.1 22.6 -0.7 37.2 39.5 25.1 25.5 26.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 23.8 23.7 22.8 -1.1 28.3 32.3 24.1 24.7 25.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 73 27 0 100 24.8 24.8 23.2 -1.7 21.6 23.8 24.9 25.5 26.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 26.3 25.6 22.8 -0.9 34.6 36.0 25.5 26.1 26.7 30 Nis 06700G01 68 32 0 100 22.4 22.5 23.5 -1.5 24.3 27.2 23.1 24.1 24.9 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 22.8 23.3 21.5 -0.9 30.2 35.8 23.3 23.9 24.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 23.5 23.1 24.1 -1.5 26.5 27.8 23.9 24.8 25.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 19.2 19.7 20.1 -0.5 40.2 43.7 19.6 20.0 20.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 70 30 0 100 24.0 24.3 23.8 -1.4 25.6 27.4 24.5 24.8 25.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 68 32 0 100 23.0 23.0 23.6 -1.5 24.8 27.9 23.8 24.7 25.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 23.7 23.5 24.0 -1.3 27.7 30.1 23.7 24.9 25.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 23.6 23.7 22.8 -1.1 27.5 32.5 23.9 24.5 24.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 71 29 0 100 23.8 23.8 22.8 -1.4 26.1 27.4 24.0 24.8 25.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 24.4 24.9 22.7 -0.6 37.5 39.7 24.7 25.2 25.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 67 33 0 100 23.5 23.7 23.3 -1.4 26.4 27.7 24.0 24.7 25.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 66 34 0 100 24.6 24.8 22.9 -1.6 24.7 25.9 25.1 25.6 26.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 18.8 18.9 20.8 -0.7 34.1 38.9 18.9 19.3 19.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 23.6 23.3 24.0 -1.6 24.6 25.9 23.9 24.8 25.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------