***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.09.2014.-21.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 21.4 22.4 22.6 -0.9 36.9 41.1 22.0 23.1 23.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 21.2 21.7 22.7 -0.8 36.1 41.3 21.7 22.9 24.9 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 21.4 22.7 22.7 -0.8 37.2 41.8 22.6 23.2 24.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 15.5 16.1 21.1 -1.0 39.6 41.0 15.7 16.7 17.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 21.8 24.1 21.3 -0.8 38.9 42.8 23.5 24.6 25.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 22.0 23.2 20.0 -0.2 46.9 47.5 22.3 23.2 24.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 21.3 21.4 22.6 -0.8 34.9 41.4 21.4 23.0 24.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 11.9 13.1 20.2 -0.4 41.0 45.5 12.0 13.3 13.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 67 33 0 100 21.1 23.8 21.6 -0.8 39.2 42.6 23.3 24.1 25.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 20.9 23.2 20.6 -0.6 39.3 44.2 23.0 23.6 25.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 21.6 24.1 21.2 -0.6 41.9 44.5 24.0 24.3 25.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 21.3 23.3 21.1 -0.5 40.8 45.1 22.9 23.7 24.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 22.5 24.3 20.7 -0.5 42.0 45.3 23.7 24.9 25.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 21.2 23.0 21.6 -0.4 41.8 44.8 22.6 23.5 24.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 23.0 23.6 21.4 -1.1 36.7 39.5 23.4 24.1 25.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 22.7 25.0 21.0 -0.6 41.0 44.5 24.3 25.3 25.7 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 20.4 21.0 22.4 -0.7 36.5 42.0 20.7 22.4 24.0 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 20.4 22.4 20.1 -0.5 41.7 45.1 22.0 22.6 24.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 20.9 21.8 22.9 -0.8 37.4 41.9 21.6 22.8 24.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 17.8 18.8 18.4 -0.3 45.6 46.8 17.9 19.0 19.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 21.4 23.4 22.2 -0.9 38.7 41.6 23.3 24.0 24.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 21.0 21.9 22.5 -0.7 38.4 42.0 21.4 22.9 24.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 21.2 22.2 22.8 -0.6 39.3 43.3 21.9 22.9 24.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 21.2 23.1 21.4 -0.6 40.5 44.3 22.8 23.5 24.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 21.7 22.8 21.2 -0.9 38.2 41.7 22.4 23.4 24.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 23.0 24.1 20.8 -0.5 43.5 45.3 22.9 24.8 26.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 21.5 22.4 21.9 -0.8 37.7 41.8 22.3 23.4 24.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 22.9 23.7 21.3 -1.0 38.7 40.6 23.1 24.2 25.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 16.4 18.7 19.3 -0.3 42.9 46.1 17.3 19.0 19.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 21.0 21.7 22.8 -0.9 35.1 41.0 21.6 22.5 24.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------