***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.09.2014.-14.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 70 30 0 100 21.9 23.6 23.4 -1.8 25.0 31.5 24.2 25.0 26.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 22.4 23.2 23.3 -1.8 29.0 32.2 24.1 25.1 26.6 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 22.0 23.9 23.5 -1.7 28.7 32.4 24.2 25.1 26.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 76 24 0 100 14.1 14.2 21.9 -1.9 23.9 30.0 16.5 17.5 20.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 71 29 0 100 22.1 23.5 22.0 -1.7 25.5 32.3 24.6 25.2 26.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 68 32 0 100 21.4 22.2 20.9 -1.0 31.5 39.5 22.4 24.1 25.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 21.8 23.0 23.2 -1.8 27.0 32.3 23.6 24.8 26.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 11.6 11.4 20.9 -1.3 30.3 36.9 11.9 13.7 14.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 70 30 0 100 21.6 23.9 22.3 -1.7 27.5 32.7 24.4 25.0 26.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 66 34 0 100 21.9 23.6 21.2 -1.5 28.6 34.8 23.7 24.4 25.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 22.2 23.7 21.9 -1.4 27.0 35.3 24.1 24.8 26.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 21.4 22.5 21.9 -1.3 28.6 36.9 22.9 24.2 25.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 69 31 0 100 22.1 23.0 21.6 -1.3 26.7 37.3 24.1 25.5 26.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 66 34 0 100 22.5 23.8 22.0 -1.5 32.4 34.9 23.9 24.7 25.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 22.8 21.9 22.3 -1.9 23.0 28.6 24.4 25.3 27.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 69 31 0 100 22.7 23.9 21.8 -1.4 25.7 35.3 24.6 25.6 26.9 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 22.1 22.2 23.0 -1.7 28.3 32.5 22.8 24.6 25.6 30 Palic 37000G16 67 33 0 100 20.8 22.6 20.6 -1.5 30.8 35.8 22.7 23.8 24.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 22.3 23.3 23.5 -1.8 30.2 32.9 23.7 24.8 26.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 17.7 18.1 18.9 -1.2 34.3 38.3 18.0 20.0 20.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 71 29 0 100 21.9 23.7 22.9 -1.8 25.7 31.6 24.4 25.4 26.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 22.6 22.6 23.0 -1.8 30.1 33.0 22.7 24.9 25.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 22.5 23.6 23.4 -1.7 31.1 33.8 23.6 25.0 26.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 67 33 0 100 22.0 23.6 22.0 -1.6 30.8 34.6 23.7 24.6 25.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 74 26 0 100 21.6 23.1 22.0 -1.8 25.2 31.4 24.0 25.1 26.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 70 30 0 100 22.6 22.3 21.7 -1.2 27.4 36.7 23.3 25.2 26.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 70 30 0 100 22.0 23.6 22.6 -1.7 26.0 32.2 24.0 24.9 26.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 70 30 0 100 22.7 22.7 22.1 -1.9 23.6 29.7 24.5 25.3 27.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 66 34 0 100 16.8 17.8 19.7 -1.4 31.0 36.8 17.9 19.2 19.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 22.4 23.7 23.5 -1.8 27.8 32.1 23.9 24.9 26.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------