***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.09.2014.-07.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 22.7 22.1 24.3 -1.8 24.7 32.9 22.3 24.9 26.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 68 32 0 100 22.4 21.8 24.2 -1.8 25.4 32.8 22.4 25.0 26.8 30 Becej 27400G00 67 33 0 100 22.5 22.4 24.3 -1.8 26.7 33.4 22.6 24.8 26.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 15.9 15.5 23.2 -1.9 29.9 31.9 15.7 17.4 19.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 23.4 23.7 23.2 -1.7 34.6 34.9 23.7 25.0 26.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 24.6 23.3 22.5 -0.8 43.6 44.3 22.7 24.0 25.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 22.2 21.7 24.1 -1.7 25.4 33.5 22.1 24.7 26.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 13.9 12.6 22.3 -1.1 40.7 41.1 12.0 13.2 15.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 23.0 22.5 23.4 -1.7 33.6 35.2 22.5 24.8 26.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 25.1 23.1 22.4 -1.4 36.9 37.9 22.6 24.4 25.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 25.2 23.9 23.1 -1.3 38.4 38.4 23.5 24.4 26.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 24.6 23.6 23.3 -1.1 41.1 40.9 22.8 24.0 25.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 23.8 24.4 23.0 -1.1 38.8 41.6 24.1 25.3 26.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 22.3 22.5 22.9 -1.4 30.6 36.8 22.7 25.0 25.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 23.8 23.5 23.6 -2.0 28.0 31.1 23.8 25.3 26.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 24.1 24.9 23.2 -1.3 37.7 38.8 24.6 25.3 27.2 30 Nis 06700G01 65 35 0 100 22.0 21.7 23.9 -1.6 26.3 34.4 22.0 24.1 25.6 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 22.2 22.2 21.7 -1.3 35.6 38.5 21.8 24.1 24.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 69 31 0 100 22.3 21.7 24.3 -1.7 25.8 33.5 22.0 24.8 26.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 20.6 18.9 20.4 -0.8 41.8 43.3 18.2 19.9 21.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 22.9 22.4 23.9 -1.8 28.8 33.4 22.9 24.4 26.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 68 32 0 100 22.4 21.9 23.9 -1.6 26.8 34.4 22.3 24.5 26.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 68 32 0 100 22.2 22.0 24.2 -1.6 26.5 35.0 22.7 24.8 26.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 22.2 21.9 22.9 -1.5 30.5 36.4 22.3 24.3 25.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 23.5 22.5 23.1 -1.7 31.1 33.7 22.9 25.2 26.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 23.7 24.1 23.3 -1.0 39.1 41.5 23.7 25.3 26.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 22.9 22.3 23.6 -1.7 28.6 34.1 22.8 24.9 26.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 23.7 23.3 23.5 -1.9 29.9 31.8 23.8 25.5 26.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 17.4 17.8 21.0 -1.0 38.5 40.7 17.5 19.2 21.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 68 32 0 100 22.3 21.6 24.3 -1.8 25.0 32.7 21.7 24.9 26.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------