***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.08.2014.-31.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 27.1 26.2 25.7 -1.5 37.0 34.5 25.9 26.7 27.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 24.7 25.4 25.3 -1.9 32.4 31.2 25.5 26.9 27.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 27.0 25.8 25.9 -1.4 37.0 35.6 25.7 26.7 27.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 20.4 19.7 24.1 -1.3 37.5 36.3 19.3 20.1 20.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 27.8 27.1 25.1 -1.0 43.6 41.5 26.5 27.5 28.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 27.4 27.7 24.2 0.4 57.5 57.1 25.1 27.1 28.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 24.3 24.6 25.1 -2.0 27.8 29.8 25.0 26.5 27.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 16.6 16.4 23.9 -0.4 52.3 48.9 15.3 16.3 17.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 27.2 26.4 25.6 -1.1 42.2 40.8 25.5 27.0 27.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 27.6 27.0 24.3 -0.7 47.2 45.5 25.8 27.4 27.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 27.6 26.7 25.0 -0.7 44.7 44.3 26.4 27.3 28.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 27.5 27.3 24.8 -0.5 50.1 47.4 25.0 27.3 28.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 28.5 28.2 25.2 -0.1 52.3 51.3 26.2 28.2 29.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 27.1 26.2 24.8 -1.0 41.8 40.8 25.2 26.8 27.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 26.2 26.3 25.3 -1.7 30.8 31.4 26.4 27.7 28.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 29.1 28.6 25.2 -0.5 47.6 46.9 27.4 28.8 29.6 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 23.9 24.0 24.7 -2.0 29.4 30.2 24.3 26.1 26.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 26.4 26.1 23.6 -0.5 49.6 47.8 25.0 26.1 27.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 27.0 25.9 25.6 -1.7 35.4 33.3 25.5 26.5 27.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 23.0 23.1 22.7 0.4 60.1 58.0 20.9 22.7 23.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 27.2 26.5 26.1 -1.2 40.1 38.3 25.6 27.0 28.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 24.4 24.8 24.9 -1.9 31.5 31.5 24.9 26.3 27.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 27.0 26.1 25.7 -1.4 39.3 36.8 25.3 26.6 27.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 26.9 26.2 24.8 -0.9 43.9 42.0 25.4 26.5 27.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 27.2 26.3 24.8 -1.3 40.0 36.6 26.0 26.8 28.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 28.2 28.0 25.2 0.2 55.9 54.2 26.3 27.9 28.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 27.0 26.3 25.2 -1.4 38.2 35.4 25.4 26.7 27.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 28.3 26.4 24.8 -1.4 35.7 35.6 26.0 27.9 28.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 21.5 21.3 23.1 -0.2 52.9 51.3 20.5 21.0 22.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 27.0 25.8 25.5 -1.9 33.2 31.5 25.8 26.6 27.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------