***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.08.2014.-21.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 75 25 0 100 11.7 11.6 14.1 -1.1 16.8 24.6 11.9 12.2 12.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 68 32 0 100 11.5 11.2 13.9 -1.2 18.0 24.0 11.5 12.1 12.2 30 Becej 27400G00 71 29 0 100 13.6 13.3 14.0 -1.0 19.0 25.5 13.6 14.4 14.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 9.1 8.8 12.2 -0.9 23.1 27.2 9.0 9.9 10.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 10.7 10.5 12.2 -0.9 25.7 28.1 10.6 11.2 11.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 10.4 10.2 11.3 -0.2 44.2 46.4 10.0 10.3 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 74 26 0 100 11.8 11.7 13.9 -1.2 16.0 22.4 11.9 12.4 12.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 5.3 5.5 10.9 -0.6 33.0 35.0 5.5 5.7 5.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 68 32 0 100 11.7 11.9 12.5 -0.9 24.9 27.3 12.0 12.4 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 66 34 0 100 11.5 11.6 11.1 -0.7 28.5 31.0 11.7 12.0 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 11.2 11.3 12.0 -0.7 31.5 32.8 11.5 11.8 12.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 9.6 9.9 11.6 -0.6 33.9 34.4 9.9 10.2 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 11.3 10.9 11.3 -0.6 34.9 34.3 10.9 11.2 11.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 69 31 0 100 12.0 12.0 12.5 -0.8 24.5 28.6 12.1 12.5 12.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 72 28 0 100 12.3 12.1 12.9 -1.1 19.5 23.8 12.6 13.0 13.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 12.5 12.0 11.8 -0.6 33.9 33.9 12.0 12.4 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 67 33 0 100 11.9 11.7 13.6 -1.0 21.3 26.6 12.2 12.5 12.8 30 Palic 37000G16 70 30 0 100 10.0 10.3 10.4 -0.7 27.2 30.5 10.3 10.6 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 67 33 0 100 11.7 11.5 14.0 -1.1 18.2 25.1 11.6 12.2 12.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 6.3 6.7 9.3 -0.5 31.3 36.4 6.7 6.9 7.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 71 29 0 100 11.2 11.5 13.4 -1.0 20.8 25.6 11.6 11.8 12.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 68 32 0 100 11.1 11.0 13.6 -1.1 19.0 24.7 11.1 11.6 12.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 70 30 0 100 11.0 10.7 13.8 -1.0 18.4 26.2 11.2 11.6 12.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 70 30 0 100 11.5 11.5 12.3 -0.8 23.9 28.5 11.6 11.9 12.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 74 26 0 100 11.6 11.5 12.7 -1.0 19.0 25.0 11.8 12.0 12.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 11.4 10.9 11.5 -0.6 33.4 36.5 10.9 11.2 11.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 75 25 0 100 11.4 11.3 13.3 -1.1 17.6 24.9 11.7 12.2 12.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 10.2 10.4 12.6 -1.0 23.7 26.9 10.5 10.8 11.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 72 28 0 100 9.0 9.0 10.0 -0.6 26.9 31.5 9.2 9.6 10.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 70 30 0 100 11.9 11.7 14.1 -1.2 17.4 23.1 12.1 12.5 12.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------