***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.09.2014.-21.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 10.0 10.6 12.8 -0.7 43.1 41.9 10.2 11.5 12.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 9.3 10.6 12.8 -0.6 43.5 42.1 9.6 11.0 12.0 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 12.0 13.1 12.7 -0.6 42.9 42.2 12.1 13.5 14.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 7.9 8.5 10.6 -0.5 41.3 43.6 7.9 9.1 9.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 8.7 10.1 10.6 -0.4 46.0 45.8 9.7 10.3 11.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 8.1 9.6 9.4 -0.1 46.7 49.7 8.4 9.6 10.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 10.0 10.8 12.8 -0.6 43.5 42.4 10.3 11.4 12.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 4.1 4.6 9.2 -0.3 44.1 46.1 4.2 5.6 6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 10.1 11.1 10.9 -0.5 45.8 44.4 10.2 11.2 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 9.7 10.8 9.5 -0.4 45.5 45.4 9.8 11.1 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 9.5 10.7 10.4 -0.2 47.5 48.5 10.1 10.8 11.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 8.1 9.4 10.1 -0.3 45.8 46.6 9.1 9.5 10.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 10.1 9.5 9.7 -0.2 46.7 48.5 9.2 9.5 11.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 12.1 11.2 11.0 -0.4 43.5 43.9 10.6 11.9 12.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 10.8 10.9 11.2 -0.7 36.3 40.8 10.7 12.0 12.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 10.2 11.5 10.1 -0.3 45.6 47.9 10.2 11.6 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 10.4 11.3 12.5 -0.4 47.1 44.8 10.5 11.5 12.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 10.7 10.0 8.9 -0.4 43.8 44.7 9.0 10.4 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 10.0 10.6 12.7 -0.6 43.4 42.0 10.4 11.3 12.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 4.8 6.0 7.9 -0.2 42.3 46.7 5.2 6.2 6.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 9.6 10.5 11.9 -0.6 42.9 42.6 10.0 10.8 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 9.3 10.2 12.5 -0.5 44.7 43.1 9.2 10.8 11.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 9.2 10.5 12.4 -0.6 44.0 42.0 9.6 11.1 11.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 9.9 10.6 10.8 -0.5 44.4 43.5 10.1 11.2 11.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 10.3 11.6 11.2 -0.5 46.3 44.0 10.1 11.8 12.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 8.9 10.1 9.9 -0.3 44.1 46.9 9.3 10.8 11.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 10.0 10.7 12.0 -0.5 45.0 43.6 9.4 11.5 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 8.5 9.5 10.9 -0.6 38.3 41.9 9.3 9.9 10.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 7.8 8.4 8.5 -0.3 42.1 44.8 8.1 9.3 9.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 10.2 10.8 12.9 -0.7 42.1 41.6 10.4 11.6 12.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------