***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.09.2014.-14.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 10.0 9.5 13.5 -1.2 23.6 33.2 10.7 11.5 12.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 9.8 9.5 13.4 -1.3 26.0 33.4 10.3 11.1 12.6 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 12.5 12.7 13.4 -1.1 27.6 35.4 13.0 14.2 14.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 7.8 8.1 11.5 -1.1 26.3 34.5 8.6 9.5 10.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 67 33 0 100 8.6 8.5 11.5 -1.0 28.1 36.1 8.6 10.2 11.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 8.3 8.1 10.5 -0.6 32.4 40.3 8.1 9.8 10.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 10.4 10.1 13.4 -1.3 24.6 32.5 10.8 11.6 12.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 3.3 4.5 10.2 -0.8 31.1 37.8 4.6 5.6 6.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 66 34 0 100 10.1 10.5 11.7 -1.0 27.4 35.0 10.7 11.7 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 9.5 9.8 10.4 -0.9 29.3 36.4 10.2 11.2 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 9.3 9.7 11.4 -0.8 30.7 38.5 9.8 10.6 11.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 7.8 8.0 11.0 -0.9 29.4 37.0 8.1 9.4 10.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 8.6 8.8 10.5 -0.9 30.6 36.2 8.9 10.1 11.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 10.3 11.2 11.9 -0.9 32.9 37.8 11.2 11.9 12.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 11.0 10.7 12.1 -1.2 24.8 32.6 11.0 12.1 13.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 68 32 0 100 9.9 10.5 11.1 -0.9 29.5 37.4 10.6 11.5 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 10.8 11.3 13.1 -1.1 30.7 35.4 11.4 12.1 12.6 30 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 8.2 8.7 9.8 -0.9 29.7 36.7 9.0 10.0 11.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 10.1 10.1 13.4 -1.1 26.6 35.0 10.5 11.5 12.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 4.4 4.9 8.8 -0.7 34.2 39.1 4.8 6.1 7.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 9.4 9.2 12.7 -1.1 24.2 34.0 10.0 11.1 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 9.8 9.9 13.1 -1.1 28.7 35.2 9.9 11.2 12.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 9.3 9.8 13.3 -1.0 28.1 36.7 10.0 10.8 12.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 9.6 10.4 11.7 -0.9 30.3 37.2 10.5 11.3 12.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 9.6 9.5 12.0 -1.1 25.5 33.4 9.7 10.9 12.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 9.1 9.1 10.8 -1.0 29.2 35.9 9.2 10.5 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 9.9 9.4 12.7 -1.2 24.0 33.3 10.3 11.4 12.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 8.5 8.3 11.9 -1.2 24.7 33.5 8.7 9.9 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 7.8 8.1 9.5 -0.8 31.3 38.0 8.5 9.5 10.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 10.3 10.5 13.6 -1.3 24.6 33.1 10.8 11.8 12.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------