***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.09.2014.-07.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 11.5 12.4 15.0 -0.7 43.9 41.7 11.8 12.6 12.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 11.3 12.0 14.7 -0.9 40.4 38.2 11.5 12.4 12.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 14.8 13.9 14.8 -0.7 42.7 40.5 13.5 14.4 15.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 9.7 8.9 13.1 -0.7 40.8 42.1 8.2 9.2 10.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 11.8 11.3 12.9 -0.6 43.3 43.1 10.7 11.6 11.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 10.7 10.7 12.4 0.2 60.0 55.7 10.1 10.5 10.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 11.6 12.6 14.8 -0.9 40.6 38.3 12.4 12.8 13.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 6.0 5.4 11.7 -0.3 49.0 45.9 4.8 5.6 6.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 12.8 12.6 13.2 -0.6 43.5 42.2 11.9 12.7 12.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 12.5 12.1 11.9 -0.5 45.0 43.8 12.0 12.3 13.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 12.3 12.0 12.8 -0.4 46.5 46.2 11.2 12.2 12.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 10.8 10.5 12.5 -0.4 47.6 45.8 10.1 10.6 11.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 11.8 11.6 12.2 -0.3 52.0 48.0 10.6 11.6 12.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 12.0 12.9 13.2 -0.6 42.7 40.7 12.5 13.2 13.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 13.4 13.1 13.8 -0.7 42.5 41.8 12.7 13.1 14.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 13.0 12.8 12.8 -0.3 50.5 47.6 12.2 12.8 13.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 13.2 12.7 14.4 -0.7 42.3 39.8 12.2 13.0 13.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 11.5 10.8 11.2 -0.5 45.2 42.9 10.6 11.4 11.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 11.2 12.4 14.7 -0.8 41.8 38.6 12.1 12.5 13.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 6.0 7.0 10.1 -0.3 47.9 45.2 6.5 7.0 7.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 12.3 11.8 14.1 -0.7 42.6 41.6 11.3 12.0 12.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 11.0 12.3 14.3 -0.8 42.3 37.6 11.9 12.4 12.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 10.9 12.1 14.4 -0.8 43.5 39.1 11.6 12.5 13.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 12.8 12.3 13.0 -0.6 43.7 41.8 12.0 12.6 13.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 12.7 12.3 13.5 -0.6 44.2 43.0 11.3 12.4 13.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 11.7 11.4 12.4 -0.5 48.4 44.9 10.8 11.5 12.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 12.7 12.0 14.2 -0.6 44.4 42.7 11.0 12.0 13.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 11.2 10.7 13.5 -0.7 42.5 42.5 10.6 10.9 11.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 8.2 9.0 10.7 -0.4 44.2 43.2 8.6 9.5 10.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 11.4 12.3 14.9 -0.9 40.4 38.5 12.1 12.5 13.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------