***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.08.2014.-31.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 85 15 0 100 12.6 12.2 15.2 -1.9 10.4 18.0 13.1 14.1 14.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 79 21 0 100 12.2 11.4 14.8 -1.9 12.5 19.1 12.9 13.7 14.5 30 Becej 27400G00 80 20 0 100 14.6 14.1 15.2 -1.7 12.8 19.9 15.1 15.9 16.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 69 31 0 100 9.9 9.6 13.4 -1.4 18.1 25.1 10.5 11.3 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 75 25 0 100 11.1 10.5 13.6 -1.5 15.3 21.8 12.1 12.8 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 12.3 11.8 12.9 -0.2 42.6 46.3 11.6 12.1 12.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 84 16 0 100 12.6 11.8 14.7 -2.2 8.0 15.0 13.1 14.0 14.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 6.2 6.4 12.3 -0.8 30.2 34.6 6.4 7.4 7.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 80 20 0 100 12.6 12.1 14.2 -1.5 15.6 21.8 12.9 14.3 15.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 66 34 0 100 12.7 12.4 12.7 -1.1 21.9 27.9 13.1 13.5 14.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 72 28 0 100 12.3 12.0 13.3 -1.3 18.7 24.7 12.6 13.2 14.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 10.8 11.0 13.0 -0.9 27.9 32.7 11.4 11.9 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 11.6 12.1 12.8 -1.0 21.1 29.1 12.4 12.9 13.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 66 34 0 100 13.5 13.1 13.9 -1.4 18.5 24.4 13.3 14.4 15.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 76 24 0 100 14.1 13.5 14.6 -1.8 11.1 19.2 14.4 15.6 16.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 67 33 0 100 13.1 13.0 13.3 -1.1 20.1 28.0 13.7 14.3 15.0 30 Nis 06700G01 76 24 0 100 13.2 12.4 14.4 -1.8 12.4 19.3 13.4 14.6 15.5 30 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 11.2 11.5 11.8 -1.1 23.9 28.3 11.8 12.3 13.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 76 24 0 100 12.9 12.4 14.9 -1.8 14.8 20.4 12.9 14.1 14.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 8.0 7.8 10.4 -0.6 34.8 37.1 7.7 8.7 9.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 81 19 0 100 12.2 11.9 15.1 -1.6 14.2 19.8 13.2 13.4 14.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 79 21 0 100 12.1 11.7 14.6 -1.9 13.6 18.9 12.8 13.3 14.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 73 27 0 100 12.5 12.1 15.0 -1.7 16.0 21.3 12.9 13.5 14.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 68 32 0 100 13.1 12.8 13.7 -1.4 18.2 24.1 13.3 14.0 14.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 85 15 0 100 12.3 11.7 14.0 -1.9 9.4 17.5 13.2 13.6 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 13.4 12.7 13.0 -0.5 39.8 41.9 12.5 13.0 13.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 88 12 0 100 11.8 10.6 14.4 -1.9 8.8 16.4 12.8 13.9 15.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 67 33 0 100 11.4 10.9 14.1 -1.4 17.4 25.4 12.3 13.1 13.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 10.3 10.0 11.3 -1.0 26.3 29.3 10.5 11.5 12.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 83 17 0 100 12.7 12.2 15.1 -2.0 9.8 17.2 13.0 13.9 15.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------