***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.08.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.08.2020.-20.09.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 72.7 74.4 54.7 137.7 75.3 66.6 29.7 57.7 61.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 55.5 67.0 51.7 133.3 72.2 64.7 27.4 52.2 63.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 61.5 74.4 53.3 134.1 74.0 64.3 31.2 57.6 69.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 69.6 75.7 49.4 115.5 65.2 54.7 42.0 64.5 75.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 59.7 67.0 49.0 125.1 67.6 58.4 34.6 54.7 62.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 50.4 54.1 50.9 109.1 62.3 54.5 28.5 44.0 57.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 44 56 100 61.9 71.8 52.7 135.8 73.4 64.9 27.7 47.2 55.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 95.4 102.6 52.5 112.4 63.5 55.5 62.7 88.4 103.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 53.5 68.9 52.6 130.9 70.4 61.1 41.6 47.8 68.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 63.5 72.7 57.5 121.0 66.5 58.2 42.7 60.1 72.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 55.8 60.2 45.4 116.5 63.1 55.6 33.0 53.2 61.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 53.5 57.4 41.1 108.6 61.5 53.3 36.0 47.0 64.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 53.8 67.1 44.1 114.4 65.1 56.0 36.8 47.8 67.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 71.3 82.9 65.0 124.4 67.2 61.0 43.1 60.9 80.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 40.8 44.2 42.5 110.7 65.1 52.4 21.0 36.4 44.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 55.6 55.2 43.7 112.2 62.4 54.4 35.5 52.0 60.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 42 58 100 62.6 70.5 52.6 135.7 74.4 65.5 33.6 46.7 58.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 70.0 77.7 64.3 121.4 67.8 59.0 44.4 64.8 77.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 59.2 72.7 52.1 132.2 71.7 64.1 30.8 55.9 67.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 76.9 87.1 63.8 114.5 64.2 57.3 56.9 72.3 88.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 59.3 77.9 51.9 133.5 73.4 62.9 44.4 55.2 72.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 54.3 75.6 54.0 132.8 71.7 63.2 35.5 45.3 64.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 50.9 76.8 53.6 131.7 71.6 63.5 26.9 44.0 67.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 74.0 91.1 59.9 127.0 70.0 60.8 37.8 65.8 85.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 62.2 78.6 55.7 131.9 73.9 63.4 38.9 58.7 70.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 41.8 42.3 39.7 113.9 61.2 55.3 29.4 35.8 43.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 41 59 100 71.2 78.7 57.2 135.0 75.7 65.5 31.5 54.0 68.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 44.5 48.6 45.2 109.5 63.9 52.2 25.7 39.3 49.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 105.4 122.2 67.1 121.5 69.1 59.9 70.9 96.6 118.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 43 57 100 53.6 56.7 52.4 133.2 73.0 64.0 28.1 41.9 51.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------