***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.08.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.09.2020.-20.09.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 4.4 18.9 8.6 89.0 64.8 47.6 2.6 10.4 19.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 3.8 12.4 8.7 87.8 63.4 46.0 4.0 9.2 13.5 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 3.0 16.1 9.2 93.3 64.4 46.9 1.6 7.6 18.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 13.9 23.5 11.0 102.2 70.3 49.5 2.8 8.8 15.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 4.0 21.3 10.5 105.5 68.9 50.9 2.8 8.1 17.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 3.4 16.7 11.4 101.0 69.9 52.3 2.9 7.5 11.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 3.8 13.7 8.7 90.0 64.6 46.6 3.4 9.2 14.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 7.3 26.7 10.9 96.9 64.7 50.1 7.7 15.3 28.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 4.7 21.7 10.5 105.4 67.9 50.2 3.4 11.1 21.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 4.6 16.1 11.5 100.1 65.5 49.3 6.6 10.5 16.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 5.6 16.9 9.5 98.1 67.2 50.6 2.3 11.4 16.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 4.6 14.6 8.5 88.9 65.4 50.0 2.8 10.3 15.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 3.6 23.2 10.3 100.0 68.7 52.1 2.4 7.8 16.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 5.1 25.9 11.7 87.7 59.6 45.8 3.6 10.4 29.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 8.6 17.6 11.1 120.7 75.7 52.2 1.6 5.0 11.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 2.5 11.4 10.1 99.1 68.7 51.4 2.6 5.2 10.2 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 3.3 16.4 8.4 87.0 64.2 46.1 1.9 7.9 17.2 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 7.5 21.2 12.4 97.7 61.8 47.9 6.1 15.1 25.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 3.3 16.1 8.8 88.2 63.3 46.8 3.7 7.4 16.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 9.5 23.0 14.2 105.3 65.4 50.5 8.0 19.5 23.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 4.5 22.7 9.5 99.3 66.6 49.1 2.6 9.6 22.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 4.4 13.5 9.1 90.2 63.1 47.0 2.7 9.7 14.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 5.2 15.4 9.2 90.9 62.8 47.6 2.1 10.9 15.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 4.6 14.9 11.0 94.2 61.4 46.0 4.1 9.8 21.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 5.7 28.5 9.7 92.3 68.1 48.7 4.7 12.5 28.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 4.6 19.4 10.0 113.4 71.4 54.3 2.3 9.4 18.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 3.7 14.8 9.2 89.9 66.1 47.6 2.3 9.0 14.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 10.5 17.1 11.3 111.6 73.5 51.8 1.2 7.9 13.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 9.1 24.0 13.3 100.0 61.7 48.5 13.1 18.0 26.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 3.6 11.5 9.0 89.9 63.6 46.9 6.0 8.9 12.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------