***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.08.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.09.2020.-13.09.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 0.9 13.4 10.1 116.1 68.0 52.3 0.6 1.8 12.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 7.5 11.8 9.9 110.1 67.9 54.6 1.8 4.3 11.6 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 1.6 12.5 10.8 123.4 69.8 54.0 1.2 3.2 9.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 2.9 12.4 9.9 95.2 63.6 48.7 1.0 6.7 13.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 1.3 8.1 10.4 108.8 68.9 51.0 1.4 3.0 6.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 1.5 7.5 11.9 96.9 67.0 46.9 1.4 3.4 7.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 6.9 9.2 9.8 107.6 66.2 53.7 0.8 4.0 9.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 4.9 16.6 11.0 96.0 61.9 50.1 2.3 9.8 18.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 1.6 9.0 10.7 110.4 68.4 49.6 1.0 3.5 7.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 2.4 9.9 12.0 103.3 65.5 51.1 2.7 5.1 10.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 1.6 12.6 9.8 104.7 67.9 51.7 0.3 3.3 11.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 3.5 10.5 9.2 98.2 64.9 50.8 1.7 7.1 10.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 1.5 6.2 9.8 98.3 65.6 48.3 0.2 3.4 6.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 9.7 11.0 14.2 111.9 67.3 53.7 2.1 3.3 9.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 0.8 3.6 9.0 92.1 67.6 46.7 0.2 1.9 3.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 2.0 9.1 9.7 99.3 66.6 48.8 0.4 4.6 8.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 8.4 12.8 10.0 104.6 65.6 54.1 1.6 3.3 13.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 8.6 13.3 13.9 105.5 63.7 52.3 1.8 5.1 14.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 9.0 15.8 10.4 117.3 69.8 55.4 1.3 5.4 14.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 14.4 17.2 13.8 99.3 59.9 51.4 4.4 10.4 18.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 2.6 8.7 10.1 113.5 68.5 51.7 1.6 5.2 8.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 9.4 14.5 11.0 105.6 65.5 53.4 2.5 6.4 14.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 8.3 22.1 11.4 128.8 72.0 56.2 1.3 3.4 10.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 7.0 9.6 12.8 112.1 68.0 53.2 1.4 2.6 8.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 6.0 9.7 10.6 111.0 67.9 51.9 1.3 3.4 7.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 0.8 5.9 8.5 94.6 64.5 47.9 0.3 1.8 6.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 1.4 14.7 10.8 113.2 68.6 52.6 1.7 3.0 12.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 0.7 6.1 9.7 93.8 65.6 47.7 0.6 1.7 6.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 19.1 21.2 14.3 102.0 62.2 51.5 6.1 14.3 22.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 6.0 10.8 10.4 117.2 69.2 54.5 2.0 3.8 10.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------