***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.08.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.08.2020.-06.09.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 10.6 10.0 13.6 129.1 69.6 56.2 0.0 8.0 9.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 7.7 12.3 13.9 129.3 70.1 60.2 1.8 5.4 11.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 11.1 13.9 14.3 124.2 68.9 56.5 3.5 9.3 13.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 4.8 25.7 13.4 113.3 69.8 52.5 4.4 10.0 19.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 3.2 21.4 13.7 121.5 69.5 54.7 2.1 6.9 16.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 10.9 9.6 11.4 90.0 59.0 49.2 3.0 7.3 12.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 13.5 16.3 13.9 131.6 71.2 59.4 3.6 6.6 14.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 8.8 22.2 12.1 92.8 61.5 49.9 11.8 16.4 24.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 3.7 17.6 13.7 118.3 69.0 52.7 3.2 8.9 17.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 3.8 19.1 14.5 109.0 65.7 52.3 3.8 7.7 19.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 4.1 14.0 11.9 102.0 65.7 52.0 2.4 9.8 14.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 14.6 14.5 9.9 91.0 61.8 50.8 0.1 6.4 16.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 4.8 20.0 10.2 95.7 62.8 50.6 3.2 9.4 21.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 10.6 15.4 15.5 105.6 63.7 53.5 1.0 7.7 15.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 4.6 11.4 12.2 112.4 72.0 53.3 1.0 2.5 7.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 3.6 14.7 10.4 95.1 63.4 49.9 2.0 7.3 17.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 9.1 17.7 15.9 144.4 74.2 61.3 2.3 6.1 15.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 18.2 16.2 15.9 106.4 62.8 51.5 2.3 13.5 18.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 10.3 12.9 13.3 120.2 68.0 57.9 3.0 7.2 11.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 18.0 15.9 15.4 96.8 60.4 48.9 1.5 13.4 17.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 8.8 14.0 13.6 121.6 69.4 54.3 2.8 6.4 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 16.8 19.5 16.1 140.4 73.9 60.1 6.4 10.7 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 2.6 8.2 11.7 100.2 61.0 51.7 3.0 5.5 12.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 12.5 15.5 15.2 111.8 64.8 52.5 1.5 6.8 16.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 12.1 18.7 16.6 137.0 73.0 57.5 1.5 10.1 14.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 9.3 14.8 11.2 103.8 66.1 53.9 0.7 4.8 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 10.1 16.5 15.9 133.6 70.6 57.1 0.7 7.5 15.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 11.3 18.1 11.5 102.7 68.6 50.7 1.8 8.2 17.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 21.9 22.2 16.3 102.0 60.7 50.4 4.6 16.3 28.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 11.4 11.8 13.0 120.5 69.1 58.1 3.4 8.5 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------