***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.08.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.08.2020.-30.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 23 77 100 17.3 30.4 22.3 207.0 82.3 77.3 2.4 5.9 14.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 22 78 100 21.1 29.9 19.1 211.0 84.6 77.9 2.1 4.0 15.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 25 75 100 19.9 27.3 19.0 197.6 84.0 77.3 2.1 6.8 18.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 18.4 25.4 15.2 153.8 77.1 69.6 1.9 6.1 14.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 18.4 25.5 14.4 171.7 80.3 71.8 2.6 7.1 17.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 15.4 18.7 16.2 156.1 77.1 69.5 0.8 9.2 16.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 20 80 100 17.7 27.5 20.3 214.0 85.8 77.7 2.3 5.7 11.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 36.0 46.2 18.5 170.9 79.6 73.3 5.5 14.5 30.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 20.0 28.4 17.7 197.1 81.5 75.0 6.5 10.3 15.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 28 72 100 25.0 33.0 19.4 175.9 79.7 74.1 7.4 11.1 13.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 15.3 20.4 14.2 174.0 80.7 71.2 4.4 7.2 15.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 16.5 24.0 13.6 167.7 79.9 70.2 2.4 7.6 12.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 22.6 34.7 13.9 179.7 81.3 69.9 1.0 5.5 12.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 21 79 100 28.1 40.2 23.6 204.7 86.1 79.0 8.6 14.2 24.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 49 51 100 5.7 7.6 10.3 118.6 73.5 65.3 0.3 1.4 3.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 13.8 18.1 13.6 167.2 79.1 69.6 1.0 6.4 14.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 19 81 100 23.5 30.8 18.4 213.5 86.1 79.6 4.0 10.1 16.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 15.9 23.8 22.1 183.0 82.5 75.5 5.5 8.2 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 22 78 100 19.3 26.4 19.6 207.6 83.2 77.7 4.0 6.2 16.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 26.4 33.6 20.3 166.2 79.7 74.2 11.8 14.7 19.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 24 76 100 25.3 32.2 18.7 202.3 82.8 76.9 3.4 8.1 19.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 20 80 100 25.6 30.9 17.8 202.7 83.8 78.0 4.1 10.1 18.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 18 82 100 22.2 29.6 21.3 212.3 83.3 78.9 3.8 8.8 16.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 25 75 100 21.5 35.4 20.9 199.3 85.0 77.7 6.7 8.8 18.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 27 73 100 18.0 31.2 18.8 186.6 81.5 75.3 3.5 6.8 17.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 17.7 26.0 10.1 157.1 78.7 68.5 0.5 5.6 20.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 23 77 100 24.6 32.0 21.4 197.7 81.9 76.8 2.6 7.4 16.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 45 55 100 10.9 14.0 12.7 132.2 73.6 66.9 1.1 4.1 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 26 74 100 27.4 39.1 23.2 197.4 84.2 77.3 8.8 15.1 25.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 23 77 100 14.0 21.8 20.0 206.8 84.0 77.0 1.8 3.4 7.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------