***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.08.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.08.2020.-20.09.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 23.9 23.8 24.9 -1.4 26.6 30.8 23.9 24.5 25.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 23.9 23.8 24.8 -1.5 25.7 29.7 24.2 25.1 25.8 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 24.1 24.3 25.1 -1.5 26.6 30.1 24.4 24.9 25.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 17.5 17.5 23.0 -0.9 33.9 38.0 17.5 18.3 18.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 67 33 0 100 24.8 24.4 23.4 -1.6 21.6 28.4 24.7 25.8 26.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 23.8 24.0 21.7 -0.9 34.7 36.4 24.0 24.4 25.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 23.6 23.6 24.9 -1.3 30.4 32.2 23.7 24.9 25.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 13.3 12.9 21.9 -1.5 22.8 29.2 13.6 14.2 14.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 24.3 24.3 23.9 -1.6 23.9 29.5 24.5 25.3 25.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 24.0 24.0 22.5 -1.4 27.0 31.8 24.1 25.0 25.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 70 30 0 100 24.5 24.1 23.5 -1.8 20.1 26.2 24.3 25.6 26.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 69 31 0 100 23.7 23.5 23.1 -1.8 19.3 26.2 23.8 24.9 25.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 69 31 0 100 24.9 24.5 22.8 -1.8 17.2 25.2 25.1 25.8 26.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 24.0 24.1 23.6 -1.3 28.7 33.8 24.4 24.9 25.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 25.2 25.4 25.0 -0.7 38.9 40.4 25.1 25.7 26.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 66 34 0 100 25.4 25.2 23.3 -1.6 21.5 28.6 25.6 26.5 27.0 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 22.7 23.1 24.6 -1.4 27.8 31.3 23.2 24.3 25.1 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 23.2 23.3 21.8 -1.3 28.1 33.2 23.5 24.2 24.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 23.8 23.6 25.1 -1.5 26.1 30.3 24.0 25.1 25.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 19.3 19.1 19.8 -1.3 24.4 32.0 19.7 20.2 21.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 24.3 24.5 24.6 -1.4 25.1 30.7 24.6 25.3 25.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 23.4 23.6 24.9 -1.1 31.4 35.2 23.9 24.9 25.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 23.9 23.7 25.3 -1.4 29.0 32.3 23.8 25.1 25.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 23.8 24.1 23.6 -1.3 28.5 32.9 24.1 24.6 25.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 24.2 24.0 23.5 -1.4 25.9 30.7 24.3 25.2 26.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 24.5 24.6 22.9 -1.5 22.8 29.4 25.0 25.5 25.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 23.8 24.1 24.2 -1.3 28.3 32.1 24.3 24.8 25.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 25.0 25.5 24.0 -0.7 37.9 40.6 25.4 25.9 26.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 18.9 18.8 21.0 -1.4 24.3 31.3 19.0 19.6 20.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 23.9 23.7 24.9 -1.5 27.1 30.0 24.1 25.0 25.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------