***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.08.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.09.2020.-20.09.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 21.5 23.1 23.7 -0.9 38.3 42.4 22.3 23.7 24.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 21.7 22.8 23.7 -0.9 38.9 42.4 22.0 23.6 24.9 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 22.2 22.8 23.9 -1.0 36.3 41.5 22.2 24.5 24.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 15.1 16.3 21.9 -0.5 44.0 45.4 15.5 16.6 17.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 22.3 23.2 22.0 -1.1 34.9 40.8 23.1 24.8 25.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 22.0 22.6 20.1 -0.8 39.6 43.3 22.3 23.6 24.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 21.7 22.8 23.8 -0.7 40.1 44.1 21.6 23.3 24.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 11.9 12.7 20.6 -1.2 34.7 40.3 12.2 13.9 14.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 22.0 23.3 22.3 -1.1 35.2 41.0 22.9 24.7 25.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 21.6 23.0 21.2 -1.0 36.2 41.8 22.8 24.3 24.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 22.1 23.4 21.9 -1.3 33.6 40.1 23.4 24.6 25.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 21.9 22.3 21.7 -1.5 33.7 39.1 22.3 23.9 25.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 23.0 23.3 20.9 -1.4 33.9 39.4 23.2 24.9 26.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 21.3 22.7 22.1 -1.0 36.3 42.5 22.6 23.5 24.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 23.0 24.2 23.1 -0.2 48.1 47.6 23.4 24.2 24.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 23.1 24.7 21.7 -1.1 36.6 41.4 24.3 25.3 26.0 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 20.7 21.9 23.5 -0.8 40.2 44.0 21.4 22.6 24.5 30 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 20.8 22.5 20.7 -1.0 36.9 42.4 22.0 23.0 24.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 21.3 22.6 23.8 -1.0 38.0 41.9 22.2 23.4 24.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 17.9 18.0 18.4 -1.1 35.4 41.4 17.8 19.7 20.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 22.4 23.5 23.1 -1.0 36.0 41.5 22.9 24.6 24.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 21.5 22.2 23.6 -0.7 41.9 45.3 21.3 23.5 25.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 21.4 22.3 24.0 -1.0 37.5 42.0 21.9 23.4 24.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 67 33 0 100 21.5 22.9 22.2 -1.0 36.1 42.3 22.7 23.9 24.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 22.1 23.2 22.1 -0.8 38.4 42.9 22.5 24.0 24.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 23.1 23.3 21.5 -1.2 35.6 40.9 23.0 24.8 25.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 22.1 23.4 22.9 -0.7 39.8 43.7 22.5 24.0 24.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 22.9 23.9 22.4 -0.3 47.0 46.9 23.3 24.0 25.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 17.0 17.2 19.7 -1.1 35.7 41.5 16.9 19.5 20.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 21.7 22.3 23.7 -0.9 38.0 42.3 21.9 23.5 24.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------