***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.08.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.09.2020.-13.09.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 25.5 25.2 25.0 -0.3 48.6 48.9 24.0 25.2 26.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 25.8 25.5 24.9 -0.4 49.3 47.6 23.8 25.5 26.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 25.5 25.1 25.4 -0.2 49.2 49.3 23.9 25.1 25.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 18.4 18.1 23.4 0.3 54.7 53.9 16.2 17.9 18.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 25.9 25.3 23.6 -0.3 48.4 48.7 24.0 25.3 26.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 24.3 24.5 21.8 0.3 55.3 54.2 21.9 23.8 25.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 25.6 25.4 25.0 -0.2 50.2 49.4 23.6 25.4 25.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 14.1 13.5 22.4 -0.2 50.1 50.0 11.8 13.5 15.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 25.4 24.9 23.8 -0.3 49.8 49.5 23.7 24.9 25.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 24.9 24.5 22.9 0.0 52.4 51.8 23.4 24.3 25.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 25.6 24.6 23.5 -0.4 46.7 47.5 23.5 25.0 26.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 24.1 23.1 23.4 -0.5 45.5 46.8 22.5 23.3 25.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 25.2 24.1 22.6 -0.4 42.9 46.7 23.5 24.6 26.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 25.0 24.5 23.6 0.0 50.3 51.7 23.9 24.5 25.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 25.9 25.9 24.7 0.5 56.8 56.6 24.2 25.5 26.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 26.3 25.5 23.3 -0.2 48.1 49.1 24.0 25.6 26.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 24.8 24.2 24.7 -0.3 49.2 48.6 23.2 24.4 26.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 23.9 23.2 22.3 0.1 52.8 53.3 22.7 23.1 24.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 25.5 25.2 25.2 -0.4 49.6 48.1 23.4 25.2 26.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 20.3 20.1 20.1 0.1 53.4 52.0 17.9 19.7 21.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 25.9 25.5 24.6 -0.2 49.0 49.3 23.8 25.5 25.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 25.5 25.4 24.9 0.0 52.1 50.9 23.6 25.0 26.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 25.6 25.3 25.4 -0.2 49.6 49.8 24.0 25.3 25.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 24.7 24.2 23.7 0.0 50.8 52.4 23.5 24.2 25.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 25.5 25.2 23.4 -0.1 50.1 49.8 23.6 25.2 26.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 25.5 25.1 23.4 -0.1 50.0 49.8 22.5 25.1 26.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 25.4 25.1 24.3 -0.1 50.3 50.3 23.7 25.1 26.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 25.8 25.4 24.1 0.5 56.4 56.0 24.0 25.2 26.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 19.5 18.8 21.3 0.0 51.1 51.7 17.5 18.7 19.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 25.4 25.0 25.0 -0.3 49.9 48.2 23.6 25.0 25.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------