***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.08.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.08.2020.-06.09.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 22.5 23.7 25.4 -1.5 33.8 36.4 23.6 24.7 26.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 22.9 23.0 25.4 -1.5 32.7 35.6 23.1 25.9 27.2 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 23.1 23.1 25.7 -1.5 31.9 36.5 23.1 25.7 26.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 15.8 17.0 23.4 -1.0 36.6 41.9 16.8 17.7 18.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 23.5 23.7 24.0 -1.6 29.4 36.0 23.9 25.4 26.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 22.6 23.2 22.3 -1.0 34.3 41.7 23.1 23.9 25.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 22.7 22.6 25.4 -1.3 34.3 37.2 22.6 25.6 26.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 11.9 12.3 22.5 -1.4 31.2 38.4 12.5 13.6 14.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 23.2 23.0 24.6 -1.5 31.1 36.5 23.2 25.2 26.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 22.8 23.3 23.2 -1.2 33.4 39.7 23.3 24.5 25.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 23.3 23.1 24.2 -1.8 27.8 34.8 23.5 25.1 26.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 22.6 23.3 23.7 -1.7 28.0 35.6 23.5 24.0 25.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 23.7 23.9 23.5 -2.0 24.7 33.2 24.4 25.3 26.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 23.2 23.2 24.3 -1.0 35.8 40.6 23.1 25.9 26.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 23.8 24.9 25.7 -0.9 37.3 42.4 24.6 25.6 26.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 24.4 24.6 23.9 -1.7 28.4 35.5 24.7 25.9 27.4 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 22.3 22.2 25.0 -1.4 33.6 36.6 22.2 25.1 26.2 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 22.4 22.6 22.4 -1.0 35.2 41.2 22.3 24.6 25.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 22.6 22.5 25.6 -1.4 33.3 36.7 22.5 25.5 26.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 18.2 18.9 20.5 -1.1 34.7 41.5 18.8 19.4 21.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 23.4 23.2 25.3 -1.4 32.9 37.4 23.2 25.2 26.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 22.6 23.5 25.4 -1.0 37.9 40.1 22.4 25.6 26.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 22.9 23.2 25.9 -1.2 34.3 39.0 23.0 25.5 26.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 22.8 22.9 24.3 -1.1 35.1 40.1 22.6 25.2 25.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 23.0 23.9 24.1 -1.5 32.1 36.7 24.1 25.0 26.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 23.4 24.1 23.4 -1.6 26.6 36.3 24.5 25.0 26.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 22.7 23.2 24.7 -1.4 33.9 37.5 23.1 25.3 26.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 23.8 24.3 24.5 -0.8 37.9 43.6 24.3 25.8 27.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 17.5 17.5 21.6 -1.1 33.7 40.4 17.4 19.7 20.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 22.6 22.5 25.5 -1.5 33.0 35.9 22.5 25.5 26.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------