***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.08.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.08.2020.-30.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 83 17 0 100 25.1 24.7 25.5 -3.0 14.6 17.5 26.3 27.0 27.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 85 15 0 100 24.8 23.6 25.5 -3.3 12.2 15.7 25.4 26.8 27.8 30 Becej 27400G00 83 17 0 100 24.6 24.1 25.5 -3.4 13.8 16.1 26.1 26.9 28.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 76 24 0 100 19.2 19.1 23.2 -2.2 22.0 24.2 19.6 20.6 21.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 84 16 0 100 26.1 24.5 24.0 -3.3 11.0 15.6 27.0 27.8 28.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 68 32 0 100 25.3 25.3 22.8 -2.1 26.1 25.8 26.1 26.7 28.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 82 18 0 100 24.5 23.9 25.4 -3.0 14.0 17.6 25.1 26.6 27.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 83 17 0 100 14.7 13.4 22.1 -3.3 12.3 16.2 15.8 16.5 17.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 83 17 0 100 25.1 24.0 24.8 -3.3 10.9 16.0 26.5 27.1 27.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 82 18 0 100 25.1 24.5 22.8 -3.2 14.0 17.5 26.6 27.2 28.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 85 15 0 100 25.5 24.0 24.3 -3.7 9.0 14.1 26.7 27.8 28.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 86 14 0 100 24.7 23.3 23.4 -3.5 10.8 15.0 26.4 27.4 28.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 89 11 0 100 26.0 24.4 24.1 -3.6 8.9 13.3 26.8 28.0 29.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 84 16 0 100 24.4 24.0 24.4 -3.1 16.5 19.0 25.4 26.9 27.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 75 25 0 100 26.8 27.0 26.5 -2.2 24.3 25.6 27.0 28.4 29.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 83 17 0 100 26.7 25.3 24.2 -3.3 11.8 16.6 27.4 29.1 29.3 30 Nis 06700G01 82 18 0 100 24.1 23.4 25.1 -3.0 13.4 17.5 24.9 26.1 26.9 30 Palic 37000G16 82 18 0 100 23.9 22.7 21.9 -3.2 12.8 17.6 25.6 26.5 27.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 85 15 0 100 24.5 24.0 25.6 -3.3 14.2 16.6 25.5 26.5 27.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 83 17 0 100 19.8 19.0 20.3 -3.0 13.9 17.9 21.7 22.8 23.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 83 17 0 100 25.2 24.1 25.5 -3.1 12.8 17.0 26.4 27.1 28.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 82 18 0 100 24.8 24.9 25.5 -2.7 17.4 20.4 25.3 26.6 27.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 85 15 0 100 24.7 24.4 25.8 -3.2 18.1 18.9 25.3 27.2 27.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 82 18 0 100 24.1 23.3 24.3 -3.2 13.7 17.7 25.7 26.6 27.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 83 17 0 100 25.1 24.5 24.5 -3.0 14.1 16.8 26.6 27.2 28.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 85 15 0 100 26.0 25.1 23.4 -3.1 13.0 16.7 27.1 27.7 29.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 82 18 0 100 25.0 24.5 25.0 -2.8 14.9 17.8 26.0 27.1 27.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 70 30 0 100 26.6 26.8 24.8 -2.1 24.6 26.5 27.5 28.3 29.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 84 16 0 100 19.6 18.6 21.2 -3.3 11.1 16.1 21.1 21.9 22.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 83 17 0 100 24.9 24.2 25.5 -3.2 12.8 16.1 25.5 26.6 27.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------