***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.08.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.08.2020.-20.09.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 11.9 12.1 15.3 -0.7 34.0 36.9 12.1 12.4 12.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 11.7 11.8 15.0 -0.6 33.5 37.1 11.8 12.3 12.5 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 13.8 13.9 15.5 -0.7 33.3 36.2 13.8 14.5 14.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 10.2 10.0 13.1 -0.2 47.4 45.9 9.2 10.1 10.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 10.7 10.8 13.2 -0.5 36.0 38.0 10.7 11.3 11.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 10.4 10.3 11.5 -0.1 48.4 48.0 10.2 10.3 10.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 12.1 12.2 15.1 -0.6 33.4 37.3 12.2 12.5 12.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 6.0 5.8 11.3 -0.3 40.3 44.0 5.6 5.8 6.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 12.1 12.2 13.4 -0.5 36.1 38.5 12.1 12.4 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 12.3 12.1 12.0 -0.3 41.2 43.9 11.8 12.2 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 11.3 11.6 12.9 -0.5 33.7 37.3 11.6 11.9 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 9.8 9.9 12.1 -0.5 34.6 39.1 9.9 10.3 10.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 10.6 11.0 11.6 -0.4 33.2 39.2 11.0 11.3 11.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 12.8 12.4 13.4 -0.3 41.0 43.0 12.3 12.7 13.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 13.3 13.2 14.9 -0.1 51.3 48.3 12.8 13.1 13.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 12.1 12.3 12.4 -0.4 37.1 40.6 12.2 12.5 13.0 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 12.2 12.5 14.8 -0.6 35.1 38.5 12.4 12.8 12.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 10.7 10.5 11.3 -0.2 44.5 46.3 10.4 10.6 11.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 11.9 12.0 15.1 -0.7 32.9 36.3 12.0 12.4 12.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 7.1 7.0 9.5 -0.1 47.1 48.8 6.8 7.0 7.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 11.6 11.7 14.6 -0.6 35.6 38.2 11.7 12.0 12.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 11.4 11.4 14.9 -0.5 36.4 38.5 11.3 11.9 12.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 11.1 11.5 15.1 -0.7 32.4 36.1 11.5 11.7 12.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 12.3 11.9 13.3 -0.3 40.8 42.6 11.8 12.0 12.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 11.8 12.0 14.2 -0.6 34.8 37.8 12.0 12.1 12.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 10.9 11.2 11.3 -0.3 40.4 44.2 11.1 11.3 11.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 11.9 12.1 14.8 -0.6 36.9 38.9 11.9 12.4 12.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 11.1 10.9 13.6 -0.1 49.8 48.1 10.5 10.9 11.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 10.0 9.7 10.7 -0.2 43.8 45.8 9.3 9.9 10.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 12.2 12.4 15.3 -0.7 32.3 36.2 12.4 12.7 13.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------