***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.08.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.09.2020.-20.09.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 10.1 11.4 13.8 -0.6 42.6 42.8 10.6 11.9 12.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 9.3 10.5 13.5 -0.6 43.2 43.1 10.2 10.7 12.8 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 12.4 12.8 14.0 -0.6 41.6 42.7 11.9 14.1 14.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 7.5 8.6 11.3 -0.2 47.6 46.8 8.0 8.7 10.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 8.7 10.2 11.3 -0.6 42.8 42.7 9.8 10.9 11.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 8.3 9.4 9.8 -0.2 42.4 46.3 8.8 10.0 10.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 10.3 11.0 13.6 -0.6 43.7 43.2 10.0 11.5 12.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 6.0 5.0 9.7 -0.4 43.5 45.3 4.1 5.6 6.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 10.1 11.2 11.5 -0.6 41.9 43.2 10.4 11.5 13.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 11.8 11.0 10.3 -0.4 44.6 45.5 10.1 11.4 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 9.4 10.3 10.9 -0.5 42.0 43.1 10.0 11.0 11.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 8.6 9.3 10.2 -0.5 41.3 43.4 8.4 9.8 10.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 10.6 9.8 9.4 -0.5 40.5 43.8 9.3 10.3 10.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 12.3 11.5 11.7 -0.4 44.4 44.0 10.4 11.9 12.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 10.8 12.0 12.8 -0.1 47.5 48.6 11.1 12.2 12.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 10.2 11.1 10.3 -0.4 42.9 44.6 9.9 11.9 12.3 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 10.5 11.0 13.3 -0.6 44.5 43.4 10.5 11.7 12.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 10.4 10.0 9.5 -0.2 47.3 47.2 9.2 10.1 11.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 10.1 10.8 13.6 -0.6 42.5 42.6 10.3 11.5 12.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 6.7 6.3 7.7 -0.1 47.7 48.2 4.9 6.4 7.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 9.7 10.5 12.9 -0.6 41.9 42.4 10.2 11.5 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 10.9 10.3 13.3 -0.5 44.4 43.7 9.0 10.4 12.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 9.2 10.5 13.6 -0.6 41.5 42.1 9.4 10.7 12.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 11.5 10.9 11.4 -0.4 43.9 45.1 9.9 11.1 12.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 10.2 11.4 12.4 -0.5 43.8 43.5 9.9 12.2 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 11.1 10.3 9.5 -0.4 42.2 45.7 9.2 10.8 11.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 10.2 11.2 13.1 -0.6 44.5 43.5 9.9 11.8 12.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 8.5 9.5 11.7 -0.1 48.3 48.3 9.2 9.9 11.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 9.9 9.1 9.0 -0.2 46.0 47.0 7.9 9.7 10.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 10.1 11.2 13.8 -0.6 42.9 43.0 10.5 11.4 12.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------