***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.08.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.09.2020.-13.09.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 11.8 11.5 15.3 0.2 53.5 53.5 9.6 11.4 12.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 11.4 11.4 15.0 0.2 54.3 54.0 10.1 10.9 12.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 14.3 14.2 15.4 0.1 52.3 52.8 12.9 14.1 14.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 9.9 9.7 12.8 0.4 58.1 55.4 8.5 9.4 10.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 8.8 9.8 12.7 0.1 52.6 51.7 8.9 9.7 11.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 10.0 9.9 11.3 0.4 58.2 55.4 8.5 9.7 9.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 11.9 11.8 15.1 0.2 55.4 54.5 10.8 11.6 12.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 5.7 5.5 11.0 0.3 53.6 54.0 4.6 5.4 6.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 10.6 11.7 12.9 0.1 52.6 52.1 10.4 11.5 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 11.6 11.3 11.6 0.3 54.5 54.1 10.3 11.1 12.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 9.7 10.7 12.3 0.1 51.3 51.0 9.8 10.5 11.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 9.7 9.4 11.6 0.1 51.3 51.4 8.0 9.2 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 9.0 10.5 10.8 0.1 52.4 51.6 8.9 10.3 11.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 12.4 12.5 13.1 0.3 54.4 54.9 11.3 12.0 12.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 12.8 12.6 14.2 0.4 58.3 56.5 10.9 12.4 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 10.3 11.5 11.7 0.2 53.0 52.3 10.7 11.4 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 12.3 12.2 14.8 0.3 57.0 55.5 11.4 12.0 12.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 10.3 10.4 10.8 0.3 55.1 55.4 8.8 10.0 10.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 12.0 11.8 15.0 0.2 52.9 53.4 10.5 11.7 12.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 6.3 6.7 9.0 0.5 56.9 57.4 5.0 5.7 7.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 11.4 11.2 14.3 0.1 52.2 52.0 9.9 10.9 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 11.3 11.1 14.8 0.3 54.5 55.3 10.1 10.9 12.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 11.3 10.9 15.0 0.1 51.7 52.9 9.9 10.9 12.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 11.8 11.8 12.8 0.3 53.6 54.2 10.6 11.3 12.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 11.5 11.1 13.9 0.2 54.3 53.6 9.7 10.8 12.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 10.7 11.2 10.9 0.2 55.5 54.2 9.5 10.3 11.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 12.0 11.6 14.6 0.3 55.5 54.8 9.6 11.3 12.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 8.7 10.8 13.2 0.5 59.2 56.5 8.8 9.9 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 9.7 9.4 10.3 0.3 54.8 55.0 8.7 9.2 10.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 12.3 12.1 15.2 0.2 53.3 53.5 10.5 11.9 12.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------