***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.08.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.08.2020.-06.09.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 11.3 12.1 15.5 -1.0 34.0 36.8 12.1 12.7 13.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 11.2 12.3 15.2 -0.9 34.9 37.1 12.0 12.6 13.3 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 13.3 13.6 15.7 -1.0 31.2 35.7 13.9 15.2 15.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 8.4 9.2 13.4 -0.6 39.9 42.0 8.9 9.8 10.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 10.1 11.0 13.6 -0.9 33.6 36.8 11.0 11.6 12.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 9.8 10.5 11.7 -0.5 37.8 41.4 10.2 11.0 11.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 11.7 12.4 15.3 -0.9 34.9 37.0 12.3 13.2 13.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 4.7 5.3 11.5 -0.7 32.0 38.5 5.4 5.8 6.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 11.6 12.0 13.6 -0.9 30.1 35.5 12.1 12.9 13.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 11.5 11.8 12.1 -0.8 31.9 37.9 11.9 12.5 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 65 35 0 100 11.1 11.6 13.2 -1.1 29.0 33.9 11.7 12.2 13.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 9.8 9.8 12.3 -0.9 30.7 36.8 10.1 10.8 11.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 10.6 10.6 11.9 -1.0 28.3 34.9 11.2 11.9 12.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 11.9 12.8 13.7 -0.6 37.6 40.1 12.6 13.6 14.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 12.7 13.1 15.2 -0.6 38.9 41.1 12.9 13.6 14.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 11.9 12.4 12.7 -0.9 31.5 36.7 12.6 13.2 13.8 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 12.1 12.5 15.0 -0.7 37.6 38.5 12.4 13.5 13.9 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 10.2 10.5 11.5 -0.6 35.8 40.7 10.5 11.3 12.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 11.4 12.2 15.3 -0.9 33.2 36.5 12.2 13.1 13.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 6.1 6.4 9.7 -0.6 34.4 41.8 6.3 7.4 8.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 11.2 11.7 14.9 -0.9 33.2 36.5 11.7 12.3 13.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 11.3 12.0 15.2 -0.7 37.2 38.5 11.8 12.8 13.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 68 32 0 100 10.7 11.4 15.4 -1.0 32.9 36.2 11.4 13.1 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 11.6 12.3 13.6 -0.6 36.6 39.8 12.2 12.9 13.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 11.4 12.2 14.5 -1.0 35.3 37.5 12.0 12.8 13.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 10.7 11.3 11.7 -0.7 36.4 40.0 11.2 11.8 12.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 11.2 11.8 15.1 -0.9 36.5 38.4 11.6 12.6 13.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 10.4 10.6 13.9 -0.5 40.5 42.4 10.6 11.1 12.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 8.3 9.2 10.9 -0.7 32.5 39.5 9.2 9.9 10.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 11.4 12.5 15.5 -1.0 33.6 36.2 12.3 13.1 13.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------