***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.08.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.08.2020.-30.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 76 24 0 100 13.3 13.3 16.6 -1.3 25.7 28.1 13.5 14.4 15.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 69 31 0 100 12.7 13.3 16.3 -1.3 27.7 28.5 13.5 13.9 14.9 30 Becej 27400G00 70 30 0 100 15.2 15.2 16.9 -1.2 29.0 29.7 15.3 16.2 17.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 12.1 11.7 14.8 -0.3 45.5 44.6 10.8 11.8 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 13.6 12.7 15.3 -0.8 36.7 36.7 12.3 13.3 13.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 12.6 12.6 13.2 0.0 57.9 54.6 11.8 12.4 12.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 71 29 0 100 13.1 13.1 16.4 -1.3 27.8 28.6 13.5 14.3 15.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 8.0 7.6 13.1 -0.2 47.2 47.4 6.8 7.7 8.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 14.9 14.2 15.5 -0.7 38.8 38.9 13.4 14.6 15.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 14.4 14.1 13.9 -0.3 45.7 46.6 12.9 14.2 15.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 14.1 13.2 15.2 -0.7 38.2 38.8 12.7 13.8 14.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 12.6 11.2 14.1 -0.5 40.1 40.6 11.1 12.3 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 13.6 12.7 14.1 -0.4 41.9 43.2 12.4 13.4 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 14.9 14.2 15.2 -0.5 41.8 41.8 13.8 14.5 15.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 15.7 15.4 17.2 -0.2 50.2 49.2 14.8 15.4 16.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 14.8 14.2 14.7 -0.4 43.0 42.9 14.0 14.6 15.3 30 Nis 06700G01 68 32 0 100 13.4 13.5 15.9 -1.2 26.1 28.3 13.8 14.4 15.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 12.9 12.3 13.3 -0.3 46.5 47.2 11.7 12.6 13.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 69 31 0 100 13.1 13.1 16.4 -1.3 27.9 28.6 13.5 14.3 15.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 9.0 8.6 11.6 -0.1 49.1 49.4 7.8 8.6 9.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 14.6 13.3 16.4 -0.8 36.5 36.1 13.1 14.4 15.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 70 30 0 100 12.5 12.7 16.3 -1.2 26.1 28.5 12.9 13.6 14.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 67 33 0 100 12.8 12.9 16.5 -1.3 30.2 29.9 13.0 13.8 14.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 14.7 14.0 15.2 -0.6 41.6 41.7 13.4 14.3 15.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 72 28 0 100 12.7 13.0 15.9 -1.2 29.0 29.9 13.2 14.0 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 13.5 13.2 13.2 -0.3 48.2 47.4 12.5 13.3 14.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 71 29 0 100 12.5 13.3 16.2 -1.2 28.7 29.7 13.5 14.5 15.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 13.3 13.0 15.5 -0.2 48.1 47.4 12.4 13.1 13.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 12.0 11.6 12.6 -0.2 49.6 48.4 10.7 11.7 12.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 75 25 0 100 13.0 13.0 16.6 -1.3 26.4 27.6 13.5 14.3 15.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------