***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.08.2015.-20.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 32.6 56.9 33.9 89.6 48.3 45.4 29.7 57.7 61.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 33.0 52.1 37.1 95.9 49.5 47.5 27.4 52.2 63.1 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 35.3 58.5 35.0 92.8 50.6 46.9 31.2 57.6 69.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 39.0 70.3 40.8 108.7 58.2 51.2 42.0 64.5 75.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 61.4 59.8 42.5 109.1 59.9 53.4 34.6 54.7 62.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 28.3 45.1 45.5 95.3 53.6 48.5 28.5 44.0 57.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 28.8 44.5 36.3 90.5 49.1 45.2 27.7 47.2 55.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 63.4 95.3 38.4 94.3 53.4 48.4 62.7 88.4 103.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 56.7 53.6 39.3 95.3 53.7 49.6 41.6 47.8 68.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 39.2 60.3 40.8 89.5 50.5 46.8 42.7 60.1 72.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 33.9 58.3 31.9 98.3 56.5 49.6 33.0 53.2 61.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 33.5 50.5 30.4 101.2 56.4 50.5 36.0 47.0 64.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 35.4 52.6 37.4 101.6 54.7 51.7 36.8 47.8 67.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 41.7 59.3 43.0 88.2 44.1 44.1 43.1 60.9 80.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 21.2 44.6 39.5 118.5 65.9 54.3 21.0 36.4 44.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 32.9 54.3 35.1 105.0 57.7 52.2 35.5 52.0 60.0 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 30.6 48.9 40.6 103.2 55.8 50.0 33.6 46.7 58.7 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 42.0 61.2 44.4 83.6 46.8 43.2 44.4 64.8 77.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 35.8 55.7 35.4 93.3 49.9 46.9 30.8 55.9 67.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 54.1 80.9 52.7 91.5 53.1 47.1 56.9 72.3 88.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 32.1 56.1 34.2 92.7 51.5 48.3 44.4 55.2 72.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 57.2 48.0 39.5 98.8 55.0 48.4 35.5 45.3 64.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 31.5 38.2 32.8 86.2 46.1 44.4 26.9 44.0 67.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 40.2 45.9 38.7 81.8 41.3 41.6 37.8 65.8 85.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 63.6 62.0 42.5 101.4 54.3 50.7 38.9 58.7 70.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 41.8 43.2 35.5 111.7 62.5 55.6 29.4 35.8 43.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 34.3 53.8 38.9 91.0 49.9 46.4 31.5 54.0 68.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 25.2 48.6 41.0 115.9 63.7 54.1 25.7 39.3 49.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 66.5 90.9 46.2 85.0 46.3 44.1 70.9 96.6 118.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 30.5 40.8 33.4 86.4 45.7 43.5 28.1 41.9 51.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------