***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.09.2015.-20.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 13.8 19.7 7.3 102.7 66.2 52.7 2.6 10.4 19.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 13.7 12.8 8.7 110.3 65.2 51.1 4.0 9.2 13.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 11.5 17.2 7.7 108.0 65.0 52.3 1.6 7.6 18.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 3.9 28.8 9.7 135.0 74.6 54.0 2.8 8.8 15.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 11.7 23.0 10.1 141.2 73.8 56.1 2.8 8.1 17.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 10.7 19.4 12.0 120.3 72.3 54.3 2.9 7.5 11.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 12.7 13.3 8.7 106.0 62.3 50.5 3.4 9.2 14.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 19.2 32.2 11.3 156.8 74.5 55.0 7.7 15.3 28.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 13.6 22.2 9.7 127.3 69.3 55.1 3.4 11.1 21.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 12.7 20.8 11.0 136.9 71.5 54.9 6.6 10.5 16.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 13.3 19.8 9.2 157.2 75.7 56.2 2.3 11.4 16.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 12.8 20.9 9.2 168.6 76.8 55.5 2.8 10.3 15.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 12.0 24.5 9.5 135.0 74.5 55.4 2.4 7.8 16.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 15.1 27.3 9.0 91.6 62.1 51.2 3.6 10.4 29.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 8.5 20.1 8.8 139.4 78.6 54.8 1.6 5.0 11.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 8.3 14.6 9.1 146.2 76.5 56.1 2.6 5.2 10.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 12.1 16.5 8.2 93.4 64.6 50.8 1.9 7.9 17.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 17.8 25.8 10.8 112.6 67.7 52.8 6.1 15.1 25.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 11.6 16.2 8.3 110.8 64.8 50.6 3.7 7.4 16.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 22.8 24.8 13.4 117.4 68.6 53.9 8.0 19.5 23.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 13.8 24.0 8.1 117.5 69.4 55.1 2.6 9.6 22.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 4.9 13.5 8.1 96.0 63.3 51.1 2.7 9.7 14.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 14.2 15.3 7.7 105.3 62.3 49.9 2.1 10.9 15.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 14.4 18.0 8.8 100.3 63.7 50.6 4.1 9.8 21.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 16.5 28.0 8.3 103.4 65.9 54.1 4.7 12.5 28.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 12.2 21.6 8.0 139.7 75.1 56.4 2.3 9.4 18.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 13.8 12.4 8.1 99.1 65.1 52.7 2.3 9.0 14.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 3.6 19.2 9.9 147.2 79.2 55.0 1.2 7.9 13.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 22.0 29.0 10.7 104.2 67.8 53.6 13.1 18.0 26.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 12.4 11.5 8.3 110.6 63.0 50.5 6.0 8.9 12.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------