***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.09.2015.-13.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 0.8 2.4 6.4 61.9 52.6 41.8 0.6 1.8 12.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 2.1 7.6 7.4 73.6 56.6 43.2 1.8 4.3 11.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 7.0 2.6 6.4 59.8 48.3 41.3 1.2 3.2 9.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 3.1 12.1 9.9 91.4 62.2 43.7 1.0 6.7 13.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 5.8 5.3 9.6 84.5 58.1 44.8 1.4 3.0 6.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 1.6 4.9 12.6 79.3 57.1 43.3 1.4 3.4 7.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 1.7 5.4 7.8 75.7 58.9 41.4 0.8 4.0 9.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 4.7 12.0 9.1 73.4 54.3 41.3 2.3 9.8 18.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 6.5 4.0 8.8 70.7 53.0 42.8 1.0 3.5 7.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 7.8 5.4 9.4 66.4 51.0 40.3 2.7 5.1 10.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 1.6 4.0 7.6 75.7 58.1 43.1 0.3 3.3 11.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 3.2 9.9 7.3 79.2 59.0 43.2 1.7 7.1 10.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 1.5 4.1 9.2 76.8 55.7 43.1 0.2 3.4 6.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 1.7 3.3 9.4 66.1 50.0 41.4 2.1 3.3 9.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 0.9 4.0 10.7 109.2 69.3 44.8 0.2 1.9 3.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 6.6 6.1 8.2 77.9 56.6 43.8 0.4 4.6 8.8 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 1.4 9.6 8.8 88.0 60.0 45.3 1.6 3.3 13.1 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 2.6 4.9 10.7 63.6 47.6 39.6 1.8 5.1 14.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 9.5 6.1 6.7 68.3 54.2 42.4 1.3 5.4 14.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 5.2 10.6 12.5 72.8 51.4 42.6 4.4 10.4 18.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 7.2 5.8 7.2 67.4 52.7 42.8 1.6 5.2 8.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 3.1 13.0 8.6 83.5 59.2 45.4 2.5 6.4 14.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 8.5 3.4 6.3 61.3 50.2 40.9 1.3 3.4 10.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 1.5 2.6 8.7 60.0 48.0 38.5 1.4 2.6 8.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 6.0 6.1 9.8 84.4 62.5 46.1 1.3 3.4 7.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 0.8 5.4 8.8 89.9 60.5 46.4 0.3 1.8 6.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 1.4 8.6 8.5 70.9 58.3 43.4 1.7 3.0 12.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 0.8 3.1 10.1 94.2 62.4 44.0 0.6 1.7 6.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 7.1 14.0 11.2 66.6 48.8 41.2 6.1 14.3 22.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 1.6 5.2 6.5 64.0 53.0 39.7 2.0 3.8 10.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------