***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.08.2015.-06.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 10.6 9.2 9.7 99.7 64.2 50.6 0.0 8.0 9.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 7.7 11.8 10.6 106.1 65.8 51.3 1.8 5.4 11.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 11.2 13.6 9.5 94.2 65.9 49.4 3.5 9.3 13.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 3.4 22.6 9.7 107.2 67.9 43.7 4.4 10.0 19.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 3.1 16.2 9.9 99.2 64.9 46.5 2.1 6.9 16.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 2.8 12.8 11.0 89.8 67.3 43.6 3.0 7.3 12.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 3.1 14.5 10.1 99.5 65.9 48.0 3.6 6.6 14.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 8.4 22.1 8.9 80.0 60.7 44.0 11.8 16.4 24.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 3.9 16.9 9.5 87.6 64.0 44.5 3.2 8.9 17.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 3.6 18.8 9.7 79.7 59.1 41.9 3.8 7.7 19.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 13.3 14.1 7.4 91.5 66.1 47.5 2.4 9.8 14.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 2.7 16.7 6.5 84.2 66.7 41.3 0.1 6.4 16.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 13.7 22.7 8.3 91.1 67.3 46.5 3.2 9.4 21.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 3.3 15.4 12.5 97.5 63.4 43.3 1.0 7.7 15.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 1.2 11.9 10.0 120.1 74.0 48.5 1.0 2.5 7.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 11.8 22.9 8.1 99.0 71.3 48.1 2.0 7.3 17.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 9.0 16.5 12.5 129.6 69.4 52.4 2.3 6.1 15.5 30 Palic 37000G16 66 34 0 100 4.8 15.1 10.5 73.5 57.2 37.3 2.3 13.5 18.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 10.2 12.4 10.0 100.0 67.0 50.0 3.0 7.2 11.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 18.2 16.6 14.3 88.1 64.0 49.0 1.5 13.4 17.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 2.8 11.8 8.3 88.5 64.3 48.2 2.8 6.4 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 12.9 18.5 12.3 126.3 70.9 53.7 6.4 10.7 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 2.7 12.5 9.0 88.3 65.4 45.8 3.0 5.5 12.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 2.7 11.4 10.0 79.6 59.2 38.5 1.5 6.8 16.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 4.9 14.4 11.6 108.3 66.7 51.3 1.5 10.1 14.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 9.1 15.9 6.9 88.7 67.9 48.4 0.7 4.8 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 3.5 14.8 11.1 100.5 65.3 49.4 0.7 7.5 15.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 3.5 20.0 10.0 113.8 71.6 47.0 1.8 8.2 17.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 7.6 20.5 11.8 82.0 58.7 42.0 4.6 16.3 28.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 4.1 10.7 9.3 92.4 64.3 46.3 3.4 8.5 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------