***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.08.2015.-30.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 86 14 100 8.0 14.0 10.5 98.5 66.0 57.7 2.4 5.9 14.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 7.7 14.8 10.4 96.9 64.9 55.1 2.1 4.0 15.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 87 13 100 9.1 18.7 11.5 116.1 70.5 62.8 2.1 6.8 18.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 10.8 17.7 11.5 110.1 68.3 51.6 1.9 6.1 14.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 87 13 100 9.3 20.0 12.8 123.5 72.1 60.3 2.6 7.1 17.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 11.4 17.0 9.9 103.5 70.9 54.9 0.8 9.2 16.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 8.8 11.0 9.6 85.0 63.6 48.9 2.3 5.7 11.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 21.0 27.9 9.0 91.2 63.9 51.4 5.5 14.5 30.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 85 15 100 12.4 16.3 11.3 109.6 68.0 57.3 6.5 10.3 15.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 15.3 12.7 10.7 95.6 64.0 52.2 7.4 11.1 13.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 9.6 15.0 7.7 91.0 65.7 51.2 4.4 7.2 15.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 10.5 14.2 7.4 97.4 69.5 52.9 2.4 7.6 12.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 9.4 30.7 10.4 120.0 77.3 63.4 1.0 5.5 12.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 17.9 23.4 12.2 101.5 63.7 54.2 8.6 14.2 24.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 3.0 6.8 10.0 113.9 72.6 54.9 0.3 1.4 3.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 86 14 100 8.0 17.0 9.6 115.1 75.6 60.0 1.0 6.4 14.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 13.6 16.4 11.1 102.0 65.9 53.4 4.0 10.1 16.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 10.5 12.2 12.3 100.0 61.2 52.6 5.5 8.2 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 9.2 16.0 10.4 98.0 65.1 55.6 4.0 6.2 16.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 18.6 18.2 12.5 97.6 62.0 51.5 11.8 14.7 19.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 85 15 100 11.5 19.7 10.6 106.5 67.4 57.3 3.4 8.1 19.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 14.1 15.9 10.4 91.2 62.4 52.9 4.1 10.1 18.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 12.0 15.4 9.7 95.4 63.7 54.3 3.8 8.8 16.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 12.0 16.7 11.1 98.2 61.5 52.9 6.7 8.8 18.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 88 12 100 8.6 17.4 12.8 110.9 67.9 60.4 3.5 6.8 17.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 17.5 26.8 11.9 141.0 79.4 67.9 0.5 5.6 20.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 11.0 14.8 11.3 96.5 64.3 55.6 2.6 7.4 16.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 6.4 14.1 11.0 120.6 73.6 56.3 1.1 4.1 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 18.8 23.9 12.5 97.9 61.7 52.0 8.8 15.1 25.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 6.1 6.3 9.3 85.3 61.9 51.5 1.8 3.4 7.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------